McNeese Cowgirls
Next: vs Louisiana Tech · Sun 8 Nov, 2 PM ETProjected 56-67 · Game page
Makes the tournament4%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 15.5
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 16-18
Net rating−12.4Rank 257 of 363 · offence 305, defence 174
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 16-18 (10 to 22 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 11-11
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 3%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 4%
- Average seed if in the field
- 15.5
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field4%
- Round of 320%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | vs Texas A&M-Kingsvillenot Division I | Home | — | — | W 65-53 | |
| Thu 5 Nov | vs Gramblingrank 297 | Home | 85% | 70-56 | W 56-51 | Right |
| Sun 8 Nov2 PM ET | vs Louisiana Techrank 93 | Home | 21% | 56-67 | — | |
| Tue 10 Nov8 PM ET | at LSUrank 5 | Away | 0% | 45-95 | — |
Rooting guide
- Sun 8 Nov: vs Louisiana TechA win: 4% · a loss: 4%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avari BerryG | 2 | 38.0 | 15.5 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 0.0 | +1.4 |
| Valencia Fontenelle-PossonG · transfer from Siena | 2 | 30.5 | 13.0 | 10.0 | 0.5 | −3.5 | −0.8 |
| Matilde MottaG · transfer from George Mason | 2 | 28.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 1.5 | −0.9 | +0.7 |
| Carley HamiltonG | 2 | 28.0 | 12.0 | 3.5 | 1.5 | −2.2 | −0.1 |
| Morgan BoydG · transfer from Presbyterian | 2 | 20.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | −7.5 | −1.9 |
| Josefine EnanderG · transfer from Morehead St | 2 | 19.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 1.5 | −3.9 | −0.6 |
| Sarah TaubG | 2 | 13.0 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | −2.1 | 0.0 |
| Laura MartinezG · transfer from Ball State | 2 | 11.5 | 4.5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.2 | +0.2 |
| Anja EkstromG · transfer from Morehead St | 2 | 7.5 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | −3.6 | −0.2 |
| Mariam CoulibalyF | 1 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | −1.6 | +0.1 |
| Sumaiya IbrahimF | 1 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −1.5 | 0.0 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 43.3%rank 305 | 42.2%rank 17 | 44.7% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin | 25.3%rank 318 | 24.8%rank 65 | 23.9% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin | 31.5%rank 314 | 35.2%rank 321 | 33.3% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin | 19.5%rank 290 | 24.6%rank 355 | 20.8% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 1.0 won, 0.8 expected (+0.2)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +9.4 points a game (they shot 11.1%, league 28.6%)
- Opponents' free throws
- −1.2 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- 1-0
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −8.5
- Last season's net rating
- +12.4
- Last season's minutes returning
- 15%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −6.0
- Change since preseason
- −3.8
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 80.2 (rank 305)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 92.6 (rank 174)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 72.3 (rank 260)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −16.3 (rank 252)
Southland Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stephen F. Austin | 1-0 | 0-0 | +1.5 | 93.5 | 92.0 | 127 |
| 2 | UT Rio Grande Valley | 1-0 | 0-0 | −7.2 | 87.4 | 94.5 | 204 |
| 3 | Incarnate Word | 1-0 | 0-0 | −8.4 | 87.3 | 95.7 | 216 |
| 4 | Lamar | 1-1 | 0-0 | −8.9 | 88.2 | 97.1 | 220 |
| 5 | Northwestern State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −11.9 | 83.1 | 95.0 | 251 |
| 6 | Nicholls | 1-1 | 0-0 | −12.1 | 81.8 | 93.9 | 254 |
| 7 | McNeese | 2-0 | 0-0 | −12.4 | 80.2 | 92.6 | 257 |
| 8 | East Texas A&M | 1-1 | 0-0 | −12.4 | 84.0 | 96.4 | 261 |
| 9 | SE Louisiana | 1-1 | 0-0 | −14.1 | 85.3 | 99.4 | 279 |
| 10 | Houston Christian | 1-1 | 0-0 | −17.9 | 76.0 | 93.8 | 308 |
| 11 | Texas A&M-Corpus Christi | 1-0 | 0-0 | −21.3 | 77.3 | 98.5 | 334 |
| 12 | LSU New Orleans | 0-2 | 0-0 | −30.2 | 74.3 | 104.6 | 357 |