Grambling Lady Tigers

Women's · Southwestern Athletic Conference · 0-1, 0-0 in conference · last L1

Next: at McNeese · Thu 5 Nov, 7:30 PM ET

Grambling15%85%McNeese

Projected 56-70 · Game page

Makes the tournament10%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 15.8

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 15-18

Net rating−19.4Rank 320 of 363 · offence 339, defence 267

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 15-18 (9 to 20 wins)
Projected conference record: 11-7
Wins or shares the conference title: 10%
Wins the conference tournament: 10%
Average seed if in the field: 15.8
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field10%
Round of 320%
Sweet 160%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	at Iowa Staterank 63	Away	0%	63-101	L 61-90	Right
Thu 5 Nov7:30 PM ET	at McNeeserank 216	Away	15%	56-70	—
Sun 8 Nov3 PM ET	at Wisconsinrank 67	Away	1%	52-85	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 10% · the next 7 days

Thu 5 Nov: at McNeeseA win: 10% · a loss: 10%0 pts
Sun 8 Nov: at WisconsinA win: 11% · a loss: 10%+1 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Princess AndersonG · transfer from Charlotte	1	23.0	15.0	2.0	1.0	+0.2	+1.0
Da'Naya RossG	1	23.0	11.0	4.0	3.0	−3.7	−0.7
Madison HoldenG · transfer from Bethune	1	20.0	5.0	5.0	0.0	−7.5	−2.0
Sophia GoncalvesC	1	19.0	2.0	5.0	0.0	−3.7	−0.6
Angel WilkinsonG · transfer from Jackson St	1	18.0	6.0	2.0	1.0	−4.6	−0.8
Aeris MaconF	1	18.0	6.0	2.0	0.0	−3.6	−0.5
Destiny LewisG	1	17.0	5.0	1.0	1.0	−3.6	−0.5
Mariam AlowonleF	1	16.0	0.0	2.0	0.0	−3.6	−0.4
Johlana TatumG · transfer from Manhattan	1	15.0	3.0	2.0	1.0	−6.5	−1.2
Azalia HooverG	1	13.0	3.0	2.0	1.0	−3.5	−0.3
Kinsley JamesG	1	11.0	3.0	3.0	0.0	−3.5	−0.3
Eve FialaC	1	7.0	2.0	1.0	0.0	−3.4	−0.2

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	43.7%rank 295	45.2%rank 259	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	21.8%rank 10	24.4%rank 76	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	31.0%rank 346	33.4%rank 123	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	19.8%rank 263	22.2%rank 328	20.5%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 0.0 won, 0.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: 0.0 points a game (they shot 28.6%, league 28.5%)
Opponents' free throws: +2.4 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −21.7
Last season's net rating: −16.8
Last season's minutes returning: 0%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −4.8
Change since preseason: +2.4

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 77.2 (rank 339)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 96.5 (rank 267)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 75.4 (rank 21)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: +13.9 (rank 60)

Southwestern Athletic Conference by rating

12 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Alabama A&M	0-1	0-0	−11.8	82.5	94.4	252
2	Southern	0-1	0-0	−13.0	80.4	93.4	267
3	Grambling	0-1	0-0	−19.4	77.2	96.5	320
4	Arkansas-Pine Bluff	0-2	0-0	−19.4	79.5	98.9	322
5	Alcorn State	0-1	0-0	−21.3	76.5	97.8	334
6	Florida A&M	0-1	0-0	−22.5	77.6	100.2	339
7	Jackson State	0-2	0-0	−24.5	78.3	102.8	344
8	Alabama State	0-1	0-0	−25.5	75.2	100.8	349
9	Mississippi Valley State	0-1	0-0	−27.0	73.3	100.2	352
10	Bethune-Cookman	1-0	0-0	−27.2	73.9	101.1	353
11	Prairie View A&M	1-0	0-0	−31.4	72.0	103.4	361
12	Texas Southern	0-1	0-0	−33.0	71.4	104.4	363