Iowa State Cyclones

Women's · Big 12 Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Nicholls · Thu 5 Nov, 7:30 PM ET

Nicholls2%98%Iowa State

Projected 83-55 · Game page

Makes the tournament23%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 8.5

Wins the national title0%Final Four <1% · projected 19-14

Net rating+13.9Rank 64 of 363 · offence 55, defence 77

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 19-14 (14 to 24 wins)
Projected conference record: 8-10
Wins or shares the conference title: 1%
Wins the conference tournament: 1%
Average seed if in the field: 8.5
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field23%
Round of 3210%
Sweet 161%
Elite Eight<1%
Final Four<1%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Gramblingrank 321	Home	100%	101-63	W 90-61	Right
Thu 5 Nov7:30 PM ET	vs Nichollsrank 247	Home	98%	83-55	Live
Sun 8 Nov3 PM ET	vs Eastern Illinoisrank 298	Home	99%	84-53	—
Thu 12 Nov7:30 PM ET	vs Howardrank 117	Home	88%	79-64	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 23% · the next 7 days

Thu 5 Nov: vs NichollsA win: 23% · a loss: 20%+3 pts
Sun 8 Nov: vs Eastern IllinoisA win: 23% · a loss: 25%−3 pts
Thu 12 Nov: vs HowardA win: 23% · a loss: 22%+1 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Tjasa TurnsekF	1	24.0	19.0	4.0	3.0	−0.1	+0.9
Arianna JacksonG	1	22.0	0.0	8.0	0.0	+3.9	+2.5
Mya BabbittG · transfer from Kent State	1	22.0	17.0	7.0	0.0	+3.0	+2.1
Sienna HarveyG · transfer from Washington	1	21.0	1.0	4.0	9.0	+4.2	+2.5
Alex-Anne BessetteG · transfer from Loyola Chicago	1	18.0	8.0	8.0	3.0	+2.2	+1.5
Ashleigh ConnorG · transfer from La Salle	1	17.0	8.0	2.0	2.0	+5.7	+2.5
Gift EzekielF · transfer from Florida	1	17.0	13.0	2.0	2.0	+3.2	+1.7
Emilija DakicG · transfer from Florida	1	14.0	6.0	6.0	1.0	+4.0	+1.6
Xiao ZhangC	1	13.0	13.0	5.0	0.0	+0.2	+0.6
Freya JensenG	1	12.0	0.0	3.0	0.0	+2.0	+0.9
Evangelia PaulkG	1	9.0	2.0	3.0	1.0	+4.5	+1.1
Macy ComitoG	1	7.0	3.0	0.0	0.0	+0.3	+0.3
Reggi SpottsG	1	4.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	+0.4	+0.2

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	45.2%rank 98	43.6%rank 73	44.6%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	24.6%rank 287	21.9%rank 349	23.9%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	33.3%rank 236	30.9%rank 21	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	22.2%rank 35	19.7%rank 106	20.4%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +0.2 points a game (they shot 28.1%, league 28.3%)
Opponents' free throws: +3.5 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +16.3
Last season's net rating: +26.4
Last season's minutes returning: 19%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +2.5
Change since preseason: −2.4

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 100.7 (rank 55)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 86.8 (rank 77)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 75.2 (rank 27)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −19.4 (rank 245)

Big 12 Conference by rating

16 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	TCU	1-0	0-0	+30.0	109.5	79.5	16
2	Oklahoma State	1-0	0-0	+28.4	108.3	79.9	22
3	Baylor	1-0	0-0	+24.2	105.0	80.8	27
4	West Virginia	1-0	0-0	+23.3	103.9	80.6	29
5	Arizona State	1-0	0-0	+21.9	104.6	82.7	34
6	Colorado	1-0	0-0	+20.9	100.8	79.9	35
7	BYU	1-0	0-0	+19.2	100.7	81.5	39
8	Texas Tech	1-0	0-0	+18.4	99.0	80.6	41
9	Kansas State	1-0	0-0	+15.3	97.1	81.9	58
10	Iowa State	1-0	0-0	+13.9	100.7	86.8	64
11	Kansas	1-0	0-0	+12.4	98.5	86.1	70
12	Arizona	1-0	0-0	+10.5	96.8	86.3	75
13	Utah	1-0	0-0	+9.4	97.8	88.4	81
14	Cincinnati	1-0	0-0	+5.4	95.8	90.4	100
15	UCF	1-1	0-0	−2.1	91.4	93.5	161
16	Houston	1-0	0-0	−3.0	91.2	94.1	172