Arizona Wildcats

Women's · Big 12 Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Iona · Sun 8 Nov, 3 PM ET

Iona1%99%Arizona

Projected 85-54 · Game page

Makes the tournament12%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 8.9

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 16-15

Net rating+10.5Rank 74 of 363 · offence 80, defence 70

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 16-15 (11 to 21 wins)
Projected conference record: 7-11
Wins or shares the conference title: <1%
Wins the conference tournament: <1%
Average seed if in the field: 8.9
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field12%
Round of 324%
Sweet 16<1%
Elite Eight<1%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Stanfordrank 62	Neutral	23%	77-88	W 84-69	Wrong
Sun 8 Nov3 PM ET	vs Ionarank 324	Home	99%	85-54	—
Thu 12 Nov10:30 PM ET	at UCLArank 11	Away	3%	57-82	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 12% · the next 7 days

Sun 8 Nov: vs IonaA win: 12% · a loss: 11%+1 pts
Thu 12 Nov: at UCLAA win: 19% · a loss: 12%+8 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Sumayah SugapongG	1	32.0	12.0	2.0	1.0	+2.9	+3.0
Jasleen GreenG	1	32.0	11.0	0.0	1.0	−0.5	+1.0
Aliyahna MorrisG · transfer from California	1	25.0	11.0	3.0	5.0	+3.4	+2.6
Breanna WilliamsF · transfer from Maryland	1	24.0	23.0	9.0	2.0	+6.8	+4.1
Arynn FinleyG	1	21.0	10.0	5.0	0.0	−0.2	+0.8
Makayla Presser-PalmerG	1	21.0	7.0	4.0	1.0	−0.3	+0.7
Gerda RaulusaityteF · transfer from USC	1	16.0	3.0	5.0	0.0	+4.9	+2.1
Molly LadwigG	1	16.0	5.0	1.0	3.0	+1.4	+1.1
Karolina UlanG	1	7.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.1	+0.3
Dionna GrayG · transfer from Kent State	1	6.0	2.0	1.0	1.0	+1.1	+0.4

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	45.4%rank 75	45.6%rank 286	44.6%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	23.5%rank 105	26.4%rank 11	23.9%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	35.7%rank 29	34.3%rank 274	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	21.6%rank 62	21.6%rank 300	20.4%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 0.2 expected (+0.8)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +2.0 points a game (they shot 25.0%, league 28.3%)
Opponents' free throws: +1.6 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +3.1
Last season's net rating: +5.7
Last season's minutes returning: 20%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +3.3
Change since preseason: +7.4

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 96.8 (rank 80)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 86.3 (rank 70)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 75.3 (rank 21)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: +14.3 (rank 60)

Big 12 Conference by rating

16 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	TCU	1-0	0-0	+30.0	109.5	79.4	16
2	Oklahoma State	1-0	0-0	+28.4	108.3	79.9	22
3	Baylor	1-0	0-0	+24.2	105.0	80.8	27
4	West Virginia	1-0	0-0	+23.3	103.9	80.6	29
5	Arizona State	1-0	0-0	+21.9	104.6	82.6	34
6	Colorado	1-0	0-0	+20.9	100.8	79.9	35
7	BYU	1-0	0-0	+19.2	100.7	81.4	38
8	Texas Tech	1-0	0-0	+18.4	99.0	80.6	41
9	Kansas State	1-0	0-0	+15.3	97.1	81.8	58
10	Iowa State	1-0	0-0	+13.9	100.7	86.8	63
11	Kansas	1-0	0-0	+12.5	98.5	86.0	69
12	Arizona	1-0	0-0	+10.5	96.8	86.3	74
13	Utah	1-0	0-0	+9.4	97.8	88.4	81
14	Cincinnati	1-0	0-0	+5.4	95.8	90.4	100
15	UCF	1-1	0-0	−2.1	91.4	93.4	160
16	Houston	1-0	0-0	−2.9	91.2	94.1	172