Arizona State Sun Devils

Women's · Big 12 Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs N Arizona · Thu 5 Nov, 8:30 PM ET

N Arizona1%99%Arizona St

Projected 86-54 · Game page

Makes the tournament79%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 6.3

Wins the national title<1%Final Four 1% · projected 26-8

Net rating+21.9Rank 34 of 363 · offence 31, defence 42

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 26-8 (20 to 31 wins)
Projected conference record: 12-6
Wins or shares the conference title: 11%
Wins the conference tournament: 8%
Average seed if in the field: 6.3
A 1 seed: <1%

Makes the field79%
Round of 3252%
Sweet 1616%
Elite Eight3%
Final Four1%
Title game<1%
Champion<1%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Jackson Staterank 344	Home	100%	97-56	W 84-41	Right
Thu 5 Nov8:30 PM ET	vs Northern Arizonarank 220	Home	99%	86-54	—
Tue 10 Nov9:30 PM ET	at UNLVrank 122	Away	82%	77-65	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 79% · the next 7 days

Thu 5 Nov: vs Northern ArizonaA win: 79% · a loss: 73%+6 pts
Tue 10 Nov: at UNLVA win: 80% · a loss: 73%+7 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Ruby WhitehornG	1	26.0	8.0	3.0	6.0	+0.1	+1.1
Averie LowerG	1	26.0	15.0	5.0	0.0	+0.1	+1.1
Ella RyanG · transfer from Quinnipiac	1	24.0	8.0	1.0	3.0	+4.2	+2.8
McKinna BrackensF	1	23.0	14.0	8.0	3.0	+7.7	+4.1
Heloisa CarreraF	1	22.0	15.0	9.0	0.0	+6.6	+3.5
Rashunda JonesG · transfer from Michigan St	1	20.0	10.0	0.0	6.0	+9.0	+4.1
Amaya WilliamsG	1	20.0	2.0	7.0	4.0	+3.5	+2.1
Deborah DavenportG	1	17.0	10.0	3.0	2.0	+5.6	+2.4
Ayanna-Sarai DarringtonF · transfer from C Michigan	1	10.0	0.0	4.0	0.0	+6.9	+1.6
Martina FantiniC	1	8.0	0.0	4.0	2.0	+4.0	+0.9
Quin'Nya Gray de SandersG	1	4.0	2.0	1.0	0.0	+0.6	+0.2

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	46.8%rank 22	43.7%rank 70	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	23.7%rank 135	23.7%rank 228	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	36.2%rank 14	33.9%rank 255	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	18.1%rank 353	18.5%rank 25	20.5%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +2.9 points a game (they shot 23.8%, league 28.4%)
Opponents' free throws: +4.8 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +19.7
Last season's net rating: +19.5
Last season's minutes returning: 48%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +7.7
Change since preseason: +2.3

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 104.7 (rank 31)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 82.7 (rank 42)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 72.6 (rank 250)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −24.6 (rank 254)

Big 12 Conference by rating

16 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	TCU	1-0	0-0	+30.1	109.6	79.5	16
2	Oklahoma State	1-0	0-0	+28.4	108.4	79.9	22
3	Baylor	1-0	0-0	+24.2	105.1	80.9	27
4	West Virginia	1-0	0-0	+23.3	104.0	80.7	29
5	Arizona State	1-0	0-0	+21.9	104.7	82.7	34
6	Colorado	1-0	0-0	+20.9	100.9	80.0	35
7	BYU	1-0	0-0	+19.3	100.8	81.5	38
8	Texas Tech	0-0	0-0	+16.8	100.4	83.6	48
9	Kansas State	1-0	0-0	+15.3	97.2	81.9	57
10	Iowa State	1-0	0-0	+13.9	100.8	86.8	62
11	Kansas	1-0	0-0	+12.5	98.6	86.1	70
12	Arizona	1-0	0-0	+10.5	96.9	86.4	74
13	Utah	1-0	0-0	+9.5	97.9	88.5	80
14	Cincinnati	1-0	0-0	+5.5	95.9	90.5	99
15	UCF	1-0	0-0	+1.0	90.9	89.9	131
16	Houston	1-0	0-0	−2.9	91.3	94.2	173