West Virginia Mountaineers

Women's · Big 12 Conference · 2-0, 0-0 in conference · last W2

Next: at Georgia Tech · Sun 8 Nov, 2 PM ET

West Virginia62%38%Georgia Tech

Projected 71-67 · Game page

Makes the tournament66%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 6.6

Wins the national title<1%Final Four 1% · projected 22-10

Net rating+21.4Rank 35 of 363 · offence 43, defence 32

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 22-10 (17 to 27 wins)
Projected conference record: 12-6
Wins or shares the conference title: 8%
Wins the conference tournament: 7%
Average seed if in the field: 6.6
A 1 seed: <1%

Makes the field66%
Round of 3243%
Sweet 1612%
Elite Eight2%
Final Four1%
Title game<1%
Champion<1%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Tue 3 Nov	vs Rhode Islandrank 83	Home	93%	78-57	W 68-64	Right
Thu 5 Nov	vs George Washingtonrank 112	Home	96%	78-54	W 78-66	Right
Sun 8 Nov2 PM ET	at Georgia Techrank 71	Away	62%	71-67	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 66% · the next 7 days

Sun 8 Nov: at Georgia TechA win: 69% · a loss: 60%+10 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Skylar ForbesF · transfer from Marquette	2	35.5	17.0	5.0	0.5	+4.7	+4.4
Gia CookeG	2	34.5	17.5	2.5	3.5	+5.7	+5.0
Zahirah WaltonG · transfer from George Mason	2	27.5	14.5	4.0	2.5	+6.7	+4.5
Khyala NgoduC · transfer from UCF	2	21.0	4.0	6.0	2.0	+5.2	+2.8
Marya HudginsG · transfer from BYU	2	20.5	0.0	5.5	0.0	+4.2	+2.4
Kennedy HarrisG · transfer from George Mason	2	17.5	2.5	1.0	0.0	+4.8	+2.2
Divine TumbaF	2	15.5	10.5	7.5	0.0	0.0	+0.6
Nylah WilsonG · transfer from Pitt	2	14.0	3.5	2.0	0.5	−1.4	+0.2
Alexis BordasG · transfer from Duquesne	1	17.0	7.0	0.0	2.0	+3.0	+1.6
Madison ParrishG	2	5.5	0.0	0.0	1.0	+4.5	+0.7

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	44.6%rank 220	47.8%rank 357	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	25.2%rank 316	25.0%rank 59	23.9%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	34.7%rank 67	34.3%rank 279	33.3%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	22.1%rank 66	20.5%rank 135	20.8%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 2.0 won, 1.9 expected (+0.1)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −8.2 points a game (they shot 43.2%, league 28.6%)
Opponents' free throws: +2.6 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: 1-0

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

2 games played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +26.0
Last season's net rating: +36.0
Last season's minutes returning: 16%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +8.0
Change since preseason: −4.6

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 102.8 (rank 43)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 81.5 (rank 32)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 73.6 (rank 125)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: +6.1 (rank 97)

Big 12 Conference by rating

16 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	TCU	2-0	0-0	+29.1	111.3	82.2	20
2	Oklahoma State	1-0	0-0	+28.5	108.4	79.9	22
3	Baylor	1-0	0-0	+24.3	105.2	80.9	27
4	Arizona State	1-0	0-0	+22.0	104.7	82.7	33
5	West Virginia	2-0	0-0	+21.4	102.8	81.5	35
6	Colorado	1-0	0-0	+20.9	100.9	80.0	36
7	BYU	1-0	0-0	+19.3	100.8	81.5	39
8	Texas Tech	1-0	0-0	+18.5	99.1	80.7	41
9	Kansas State	2-0	0-0	+16.3	96.3	80.1	54
10	Iowa State	2-0	0-0	+15.3	101.2	85.8	59
11	Kansas	1-0	0-0	+12.5	98.7	86.1	68
12	Arizona	1-0	0-0	+10.5	96.9	86.4	74
13	Utah	1-0	0-0	+9.5	98.0	88.5	79
14	Cincinnati	1-0	0-0	+5.5	96.0	90.5	96
15	UCF	1-1	0-0	−2.1	91.5	93.5	161
16	Houston	1-0	0-0	−2.9	91.3	94.2	169