Kansas State Wildcats

Women's · Big 12 Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs S Indiana · Thu 5 Nov, 7:30 PM ET

S Indiana14%86%Kansas St

Projected 72-58 · Game page

Makes the tournament35%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 7.2

Wins the national title0%Final Four <1% · projected 19-14

Net rating+15.3Rank 57 of 363 · offence 76, defence 33

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 19-14 (14 to 25 wins)
Projected conference record: 9-9
Wins or shares the conference title: 1%
Wins the conference tournament: 2%
Average seed if in the field: 7.2
A 1 seed: <1%

Makes the field35%
Round of 3218%
Sweet 163%
Elite Eight<1%
Final Four<1%
Title game<1%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Wichita Staterank 279	Home	99%	95-62	W 61-41	Right
Thu 5 Nov7:30 PM ET	vs Southern Indianarank 106	Home	86%	72-58	—
Sun 8 Nov1 PM ET	vs UT Rio Grande Valleyrank 205	Home	96%	77-53	—
Tue 10 Nov12 PM ET	vs Montanarank 225	Home	97%	79-53	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 35% · the next 7 days

Thu 5 Nov: vs Southern IndianaA win: 35% · a loss: 33%+2 pts
Sun 8 Nov: vs UT Rio Grande ValleyA win: 35% · a loss: 34%+1 pts
Tue 10 Nov: vs MontanaA win: 35% · a loss: 35%−1 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Nastja ClaessensF	1	35.0	4.0	6.0	1.0	+0.6	+1.8
Taryn SidesG	1	32.0	15.0	6.0	1.0	+7.2	+5.5
Shaila NdeF	1	32.0	12.0	9.0	1.0	+0.8	+1.7
Gina GarciaG	1	29.0	7.0	3.0	6.0	+5.6	+4.2
Tea CleanteG · transfer from Penn State	1	18.0	9.0	1.0	3.0	+3.7	+1.9
Cristina OsazuwaF	1	15.0	4.0	4.0	2.0	+1.2	+0.9
Tzoana TampakouC	1	15.0	4.0	4.0	0.0	+1.2	+0.9
Mikayla ParksG	1	14.0	2.0	0.0	0.0	+2.4	+1.2
Ivona ScekicC	1	8.0	4.0	1.0	0.0	+4.3	+0.9
Sage HenryG	1	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+1.6	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	43.5%rank 301	43.0%rank 32	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	23.1%rank 67	23.9%rank 113	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	31.9%rank 317	33.4%rank 123	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	20.7%rank 116	19.7%rank 99	20.5%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +0.8 points a game (they shot 26.7%, league 28.4%)
Opponents' free throws: +3.2 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +17.6
Last season's net rating: +17.8
Last season's minutes returning: 45%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +1.3
Change since preseason: −2.2

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 97.2 (rank 76)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 81.9 (rank 33)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 73.6 (rank 135)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −14.1 (rank 211)

Big 12 Conference by rating

16 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	TCU	1-0	0-0	+30.1	109.6	79.5	16
2	Oklahoma State	1-0	0-0	+28.4	108.4	79.9	22
3	Baylor	1-0	0-0	+24.2	105.1	80.9	27
4	West Virginia	1-0	0-0	+23.3	104.0	80.7	29
5	Arizona State	1-0	0-0	+21.9	104.7	82.7	34
6	Colorado	1-0	0-0	+20.9	100.9	80.0	35
7	BYU	1-0	0-0	+19.3	100.8	81.5	38
8	Texas Tech	0-0	0-0	+16.8	100.4	83.6	48
9	Kansas State	1-0	0-0	+15.3	97.2	81.9	57
10	Iowa State	1-0	0-0	+13.9	100.8	86.8	62
11	Kansas	1-0	0-0	+12.5	98.6	86.1	70
12	Arizona	1-0	0-0	+10.5	96.9	86.4	74
13	Utah	1-0	0-0	+9.5	97.9	88.5	80
14	Cincinnati	1-0	0-0	+5.5	95.9	90.5	99
15	UCF	1-0	0-0	+1.0	90.9	89.9	131
16	Houston	1-0	0-0	−2.9	91.3	94.2	173