Utah Utes

Women's · Big 12 Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Colorado St · Fri 6 Nov, 7 PM ET

Colorado St31%69%Utah

Projected 68-61 · Game page

Makes the tournament11%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 9.0

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 16-15

Net rating+9.5Rank 80 of 363 · offence 73, defence 95

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 16-15 (11 to 21 wins)
Projected conference record: 6-12
Wins or shares the conference title: <1%
Wins the conference tournament: <1%
Average seed if in the field: 9.0
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field11%
Round of 324%
Sweet 16<1%
Elite Eight<1%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Tue 3 Nov	vs Eastern Washingtonrank 139	Home	92%	79-59	W 76-67	Right
Fri 6 Nov7 PM ET	vs Colorado Staterank 93	Home	69%	68-61	—
Mon 9 Nov9 PM ET	vs Bethune-Cookmanrank 353	Home	99%	83-47	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 11% · the next 7 days

Fri 6 Nov: vs Colorado StateA win: 11% · a loss: 11%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Filipa BarrosG · transfer from CA Baptist	1	34.0	9.0	7.0	6.0	+3.9	+3.8
Chyra EvansF	1	32.0	9.0	5.0	2.0	+3.4	+3.3
Lena GirardiG · transfer from Oklahoma St	1	31.0	19.0	8.0	1.0	+3.7	+3.3
Olivia BradleyF · transfer from Santa Barbara	1	26.0	11.0	6.0	2.0	+2.9	+2.4
Peyton JonesG	1	26.0	17.0	2.0	1.0	−2.2	0.0
Laia ConesaG · transfer from Kansas	1	21.0	8.0	1.0	2.0	+1.6	+1.4
Rylee LittleF	1	17.0	3.0	2.0	1.0	−2.0	0.0
Ella ToddG	1	8.0	0.0	2.0	0.0	−1.8	+0.1
Evelina OttoF	1	5.0	0.0	2.0	2.0	+3.4	+0.5

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	46.0%rank 54	44.5%rank 116	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	24.5%rank 291	21.7%rank 354	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	31.1%rank 343	35.2%rank 320	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	21.1%rank 91	18.6%rank 35	20.5%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 0.9 expected (+0.1)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +2.1 points a game (they shot 25.9%, league 28.5%)
Opponents' free throws: +0.1 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +13.5
Last season's net rating: +16.3
Last season's minutes returning: 19%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +2.7
Change since preseason: −4.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 98.0 (rank 73)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 88.5 (rank 95)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 73.0 (rank 196)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: +0.5 (rank 119)

Big 12 Conference by rating

16 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	TCU	1-0	0-0	+30.1	109.7	79.6	16
2	Oklahoma State	1-0	0-0	+28.4	108.5	80.0	22
3	Baylor	1-0	0-0	+24.2	105.2	81.0	27
4	West Virginia	1-0	0-0	+23.3	104.0	80.7	29
5	Arizona State	1-0	0-0	+21.9	104.7	82.8	34
6	Colorado	1-0	0-0	+20.9	100.9	80.0	35
7	BYU	1-0	0-0	+19.3	100.8	81.6	38
8	Texas Tech	0-0	0-0	+16.8	100.5	83.7	48
9	Kansas State	1-0	0-0	+15.3	97.3	82.0	58
10	Iowa State	1-0	0-0	+13.9	100.8	86.9	63
11	Kansas	1-0	0-0	+12.5	98.7	86.2	70
12	Arizona	1-0	0-0	+10.5	97.0	86.4	74
13	Utah	1-0	0-0	+9.5	98.0	88.5	80
14	Cincinnati	1-0	0-0	+5.4	96.0	90.5	99
15	UCF	1-1	0-0	−2.1	91.5	93.6	162
16	Houston	1-0	0-0	−2.9	91.3	94.3	173