Stanford Cardinal

Women's · Atlantic Coast Conference · 1-1, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs UC Davis · Sun 8 Nov, 5 PM ET

UC Davis8%92%Stanford

Projected 78-58 · Game page

Makes the tournament21%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 7.0

Wins the national title0%Final Four <1% · projected 15-18

Net rating+14.3Rank 62 of 363 · offence 58, defence 65

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 15-18 (9 to 21 wins)
Projected conference record: 8-10
Wins or shares the conference title: <1%
Wins the conference tournament: <1%
Average seed if in the field: 7.0
A 1 seed: <1%

Makes the field21%
Round of 3212%
Sweet 162%
Elite Eight<1%
Final Four<1%
Title game<1%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Arizonarank 74	Neutral	77%	88-77	L 69-84	Wrong
Wed 4 Nov	vs Saint Mary'srank 245	Home	88%	75-58	W 87-54	Right
Sun 8 Nov5 PM ET	vs UC Davisrank 173	Home	92%	78-58	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 21% · the next 7 days

Sun 8 Nov: vs UC DavisA win: 21% · a loss: 19%+2 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Shay IjiwoyeG	2	36.0	12.5	2.0	3.5	+1.7	+2.5
Hailee SwainG	2	36.0	21.5	4.5	2.5	+2.5	+3.1
Ines Sotelo MiguezF · transfer from Michigan St	2	29.0	7.5	7.0	3.5	+4.0	+3.3
Alexandra EschmeyerF	2	26.0	10.5	5.5	0.5	+5.6	+3.7
Nora EzikeF	2	20.5	13.0	5.0	0.5	+2.7	+1.8
Charlotte TuhyF · transfer from American	2	17.0	4.5	5.0	0.5	+1.6	+1.2
Ilse de VriesF · transfer from Miami OH	2	14.5	3.0	2.0	1.0	+4.9	+1.9
Kennedy UmehC	2	9.0	5.0	2.5	1.5	+0.1	+0.4
Gracyn GilliardG	2	8.5	0.5	1.0	1.0	+0.1	+0.3
Elyse NgendaG	1	5.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	+0.4	+0.2
Kiara GreenC	1	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.5	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	47.6%rank 7	46.3%rank 324	44.6%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	25.9%rank 346	24.6%rank 64	23.9%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	33.7%rank 129	33.4%rank 131	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	20.5%rank 134	19.9%rank 119	20.4%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.7 expected (−0.7)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −7.6 points a game (they shot 42.9%, league 28.3%)
Opponents' free throws: +1.0 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

2 games played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +15.1
Last season's net rating: +21.6
Last season's minutes returning: 30%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +1.4
Change since preseason: −0.8

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 100.1 (rank 58)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 85.8 (rank 65)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 73.8 (rank 106)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −0.5 (rank 127)

Atlantic Coast Conference by rating

18 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Louisville	2-0	0-0	+35.8	111.2	75.4	8
2	Duke	1-0	0-0	+33.5	108.3	74.9	12
3	Notre Dame	1-0	0-0	+29.6	111.4	81.8	18
4	North Carolina	0-1	0-0	+29.4	107.5	78.1	19
5	NC State	2-0	0-0	+28.2	107.4	79.1	23
6	Virginia Tech	2-0	0-0	+22.9	103.4	80.6	31
7	California	1-0	0-0	+22.4	103.4	81.0	32
8	Miami	1-0	0-0	+18.9	102.2	83.3	40
9	Virginia	1-0	0-0	+16.9	101.1	84.1	49
10	Syracuse	1-0	0-0	+15.7	98.7	83.0	54
11	Clemson	1-0	0-0	+15.6	100.5	84.9	55
12	Stanford	1-1	0-0	+14.3	100.1	85.8	62
13	Georgia Tech	1-0	0-0	+12.3	97.6	85.4	70
14	Florida State	2-0	0-0	+12.1	100.2	88.1	71
15	SMU	2-0	0-0	+2.7	89.3	86.7	114
16	Wake Forest	2-0	0-0	+0.4	91.9	91.4	139
17	Pittsburgh	1-0	0-0	−1.9	91.0	93.0	157
18	Boston College	0-1	0-0	−5.7	89.3	95.0	191