Florida State Seminoles

Women's · Atlantic Coast Conference · 2-0, 0-0 in conference · last W2

Next: vs Florida A&M · Sun 8 Nov, 2 PM ET

Florida A&M0%100%Florida St

Projected 87-51 · Game page

Makes the tournament17%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 8.8

Wins the national title0%Final Four <1% · projected 17-14

Net rating+12.7Rank 68 of 363 · offence 61, defence 82

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 17-14 (12 to 22 wins)
Projected conference record: 7-11
Wins or shares the conference title: <1%
Wins the conference tournament: <1%
Average seed if in the field: 8.8
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field17%
Round of 327%
Sweet 161%
Elite Eight<1%
Final Four<1%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Merrimackrank 297	Home	99%	99-67	W 81-51	Right
Thu 5 Nov	vs North Floridarank 223	Home	98%	85-55	W 74-63	Right
Sun 8 Nov2 PM ET	vs Florida A&Mrank 339	Home	100%	87-51	—
Wed 11 Nov6 PM ET	vs West Floridarank 296	Home	99%	86-56	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 17% · the next 7 days

Sun 8 Nov: vs Florida A&MA win: 17% · a loss: 16%+1 pts
Wed 11 Nov: vs West FloridaA win: 17% · a loss: 15%+2 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Aga MakuratF · transfer from Vanderbilt	2	27.5	5.5	4.0	1.5	+4.1	+3.2
Sole WilliamsG	2	26.0	13.5	5.0	4.0	+2.7	+2.4
Savannah HendersonF · transfer from Georgia	2	24.5	6.5	3.5	0.0	+2.5	+2.1
Tatum GreeneG	2	24.0	6.5	7.0	1.0	+2.2	+2.0
Morgan StewartG	2	23.0	17.0	6.0	3.0	−0.8	+0.6
Timaya Lewis-EutseyG · transfer from Marshall	2	19.0	9.5	4.5	1.5	+9.1	+4.0
Emma RischG	2	18.5	6.0	2.5	1.0	+1.5	+1.3
Missy OdomF	2	15.5	8.5	3.0	0.5	−0.7	+0.4
Joy EgbunaF · transfer from Alabama	2	9.5	0.0	3.0	0.0	+3.1	+0.9
Mari GertonG	2	8.5	3.0	0.5	0.5	+1.2	+0.5
Asia LeeG	1	7.0	3.0	1.0	0.0	−0.1	+0.3
Kennedy LouxG	1	2.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	44.2%rank 260	45.4%rank 276	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	22.3%rank 32	25.6%rank 22	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	34.0%rank 109	33.8%rank 241	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	15.5%rank 363	19.8%rank 108	20.5%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 2.0 won, 2.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −0.3 points a game (they shot 28.8%, league 28.5%)
Opponents' free throws: −1.7 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

2 games played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +15.3
Last season's net rating: +6.9
Last season's minutes returning: 47%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +4.9
Change since preseason: −2.7

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 99.9 (rank 61)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 87.2 (rank 82)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 75.2 (rank 31)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −12.8 (rank 201)

Atlantic Coast Conference by rating

18 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Louisville	2-0	0-0	+35.8	111.3	75.5	8
2	Duke	1-0	0-0	+33.5	108.5	75.0	12
3	Notre Dame	1-0	0-0	+29.6	111.6	82.0	18
4	North Carolina	0-1	0-0	+29.4	107.6	78.2	19
5	NC State	2-0	0-0	+28.3	107.5	79.3	23
6	Virginia Tech	2-0	0-0	+22.9	103.6	80.7	31
7	California	1-0	0-0	+22.4	103.6	81.2	32
8	Miami	1-0	0-0	+18.9	102.4	83.4	40
9	Virginia	1-0	0-0	+17.0	101.2	84.3	47
10	Syracuse	1-0	0-0	+15.7	98.8	83.1	53
11	Clemson	1-0	0-0	+15.6	100.7	85.0	54
12	Stanford	1-1	0-0	+14.3	100.3	85.9	62
13	Florida State	2-0	0-0	+12.7	99.9	87.2	68
14	Georgia Tech	1-0	0-0	+12.3	97.8	85.5	71
15	SMU	2-0	0-0	+2.7	89.5	86.8	114
16	Wake Forest	1-0	0-0	+0.8	90.8	90.0	133
17	Pittsburgh	1-0	0-0	−1.9	91.2	93.1	158
18	Boston College	0-1	0-0	−4.8	89.5	94.3	188