Merrimack Warriors

Women's · Metro Conference · 0-1, 0-0 in conference · last L1

Next: at NJIT · Thu 5 Nov, 6 PM ET

Merrimack13%87%NJIT

Projected 56-71 · Game page

Makes the tournament1%From 20,000 simulated seasons

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 12-19

Net rating−16.5Rank 297 of 363 · offence 323, defence 237

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 12-19 (7 to 18 wins)
Projected conference record: 10-10
Wins or shares the conference title: <1%
Wins the conference tournament: 0%
Average seed if in the field: —
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field1%
Round of 320%
Sweet 160%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	at Florida Staterank 68	Away	1%	67-99	L 51-81	Right
Thu 5 Nov6 PM ET	at NJITrank 190	Away	13%	56-71	Live
Sun 8 Nov1 PM ET	vs Mainerank 177	Home	32%	60-67	—
Thu 12 Nov7 PM ET	at Villanovarank 39	Away	0%	51-87	—

Rooting guide

Chance of the conference title now: <1% · the next 7 days

Thu 5 Nov: at NJITA win: 0% · a loss: <1%0 pts
Sun 8 Nov: vs MaineA win: <1% · a loss: <1%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Kristen KelleyG	1	31.0	10.0	1.0	0.0	−4.1	−1.1
Joi WilliamsG	1	31.0	3.0	2.0	2.0	−3.5	−0.8
Olivia BorsutzkiG	1	30.0	9.0	6.0	1.0	−2.4	−0.1
Jamie KentF · transfer from New Hampshire	1	29.0	7.0	2.0	1.0	−4.2	−1.1
Claudia CrespoG	1	28.0	12.0	7.0	1.0	−2.3	−0.1
Naomi WilsonF · transfer from Winthrop	1	23.0	10.0	14.0	4.0	−4.2	−0.9
Claudia MarinaG · transfer from FIU	1	14.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	−2.9	−0.2
Jenna MishouF	1	5.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−1.7	0.0
Emma DibarboureF · transfer from W Michigan	1	3.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−3.7	−0.1
Abriel Grant-CaracasG	1	2.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	−1.6	0.0
Csenge SzomszedF	1	2.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	−1.6	0.0
Samantha GrellaG	1	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−1.6	0.0

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	45.3%rank 93	44.9%rank 234	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	26.9%rank 358	22.5%rank 328	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	33.3%rank 245	32.0%rank 52	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	20.0%rank 244	17.2%rank 3	20.5%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 0.0 won, 0.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −2.3 points a game (they shot 31.0%, league 28.4%)
Opponents' free throws: +1.4 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −16.0
Last season's net rating: −5.8
Last season's minutes returning: 6%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −1.5
Change since preseason: −0.5

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 78.7 (rank 323)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 95.2 (rank 237)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 74.3 (rank 73)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: +12.7 (rank 66)

Metro Conference by rating

13 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Fairfield	0-0	0-0	+15.4	101.3	85.9	55
2	Quinnipiac	1-0	0-0	−1.9	89.9	91.8	160
3	Siena	1-0	0-0	−9.3	86.6	95.9	226
4	Sacred Heart	0-1	0-0	−15.6	79.9	95.5	291
5	Marist	0-1	0-0	−15.6	82.8	98.4	292
6	Manhattan	1-0	0-0	−16.1	80.7	96.7	294
7	Merrimack	0-1	0-0	−16.5	78.7	95.2	297
8	Mount St. Mary's	0-1	0-0	−18.1	80.0	98.1	311
9	Rider	0-1	0-0	−19.4	75.5	95.0	320
10	Iona	1-1	0-0	−19.6	83.7	103.2	323
11	Canisius	0-0	0-0	−21.1	78.1	99.1	332
12	Saint Peter's	0-1	0-0	−26.3	76.8	103.1	350
13	Niagara	0-1	0-0	−30.9	69.9	100.9	359