Maine Black Bears

Women's · America East Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: at Merrimack · Sun 8 Nov, 1 PM ET

Maine66%34%Merrimack

Projected 64-59 · Game page

Makes the tournament7%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 14.8

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 12-18

Net rating−7.2Rank 206 of 363 · offence 188, defence 236

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 12-18 (7 to 18 wins)
Projected conference record: 8-8
Wins or shares the conference title: 6%
Wins the conference tournament: 7%
Average seed if in the field: 14.8
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field7%
Round of 32<1%
Sweet 160%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Thu 5 Nov	vs Sienarank 200	Home	77%	73-62	W 70-68	Right
Sun 8 Nov1 PM ET	at Merrimackrank 321	Away	66%	64-59	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 7% · the next 7 days

Sun 8 Nov: at MerrimackA win: 7% · a loss: 6%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Lala WoodsG	1	39.0	13.0	1.0	3.0	−1.6	+0.4
Maddie FitzpatrickG	1	36.0	14.0	17.0	3.0	−2.5	−0.2
Lizzy GruberC	1	31.0	18.0	10.0	3.0	+0.9	+1.7
Kaliyah SainF	1	31.0	9.0	3.0	1.0	−0.8	+0.8
Olivia AlvarezG	1	28.0	8.0	2.0	3.0	−2.1	0.0
Emmie Streams-StevensG	1	14.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	−2.7	−0.1
Abby PriceG	1	12.0	8.0	0.0	0.0	−2.8	−0.1
Bailey BreenF	1	6.0	0.0	3.0	1.0	−1.2	+0.1
Zeina HaleemF	1	3.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−1.1	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	45.2%rank 110	45.1%rank 238	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	25.4%rank 322	21.9%rank 346	23.9%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	31.5%rank 314	32.2%rank 88	33.3%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	21.5%rank 92	19.3%rank 64	20.8%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 0.8 expected (+0.2)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +10.7 points a game (they shot 13.0%, league 28.6%)
Opponents' free throws: +1.2 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: 1-0

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −3.1
Last season's net rating: +1.4
Last season's minutes returning: 47%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: 0.0
Change since preseason: −4.1

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 87.9 (rank 188)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 95.2 (rank 236)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 72.1 (rank 277)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −6.7 (rank 188)

America East Conference by rating

9 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Vermont	2-0	0-0	+3.6	96.2	92.6	107
2	NJIT	2-0	0-0	−2.4	85.7	88.1	164
3	UMBC	2-0	0-0	−3.0	87.8	90.8	174
4	Bryant	2-0	0-0	−5.6	87.5	93.1	189
5	UAlbany	2-0	0-0	−5.9	86.2	92.0	191
6	Binghamton	0-1	0-0	−7.2	86.4	93.5	203
7	Maine	1-0	0-0	−7.2	87.9	95.2	206
8	New Hampshire	1-1	0-0	−15.5	80.4	95.9	291
9	UMass Lowell	2-0	0-0	−16.3	82.2	98.5	296