UMBC Retrievers

Women's · America East Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Mount St Marys · Thu 5 Nov, 6 PM ET

Mount St Marys13%87%UMBC

Projected 71-55 · Game page

Makes the tournament9%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 14.8

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 16-13

Net rating−5.5Rank 193 of 363 · offence 229, defence 148

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 16-13 (11 to 23 wins)
Projected conference record: 8-8
Wins or shares the conference title: 9%
Wins the conference tournament: 9%
Average seed if in the field: 14.8
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field9%
Round of 32<1%
Sweet 160%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result
Mon 2 Nov	vs Stevensonnot Division I	Home	—	—	W 92-29
Thu 5 Nov6 PM ET	vs Mount St. Mary'srank 311	Home	87%	71-55	Live
Sun 8 Nov2 PM ET	at Quinnipiacrank 159	Away	29%	58-66	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 9% · the next 7 days

Thu 5 Nov: vs Mount St. Mary'sA win: 9% · a loss: 9%0 pts
Sun 8 Nov: at QuinnipiacA win: 9% · a loss: 9%−1 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Gabby ScottF	1	18.0	0.0	4.0	0.0	−1.4	+0.3
Shariah BaynesG · transfer from Towson	1	18.0	6.0	2.0	6.0	−1.6	+0.2
Sadaya JonesG	1	18.0	3.0	3.0	0.0	−2.0	+0.1
Heidi WilliamsG	1	17.0	19.0	4.0	3.0	+0.4	+0.8
Angela WilliamsF · transfer from James Madison	1	16.0	15.0	2.0	3.0	+1.8	+1.1
Alden YergeyG · transfer from Siena	1	15.0	7.0	3.0	1.0	−4.1	−0.5
Kennedy AustinG	1	15.0	6.0	4.0	3.0	+0.5	+0.7
Jeanine BrandsmaC · transfer from Austin Peay	1	14.0	4.0	5.0	0.0	−2.2	0.0
Alaina WilliamsF	1	14.0	12.0	4.0	0.0	+0.5	+0.7
Dagny SlomackG	1	14.0	4.0	1.0	2.0	−2.0	0.0
Syd SuttonG	1	12.0	4.0	1.0	1.0	−1.9	+0.1
Maisie CrowleyF	1	11.0	7.0	7.0	1.0	−0.1	+0.4
Tiara BellamyG	1	9.0	2.0	0.0	1.0	−2.5	−0.1
Cai RobersonF	1	9.0	3.0	3.0	0.0	−1.8	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	44.7%rank 137	44.7%rank 132	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	23.8%rank 144	23.8%rank 126	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	33.5%rank 137	33.5%rank 133	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	20.5%rank 127	20.5%rank 139	20.5%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −5.5
Last season's net rating: −1.9
Last season's minutes returning: 60%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −0.2
Change since preseason: 0.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 86.0 (rank 229)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 91.5 (rank 148)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 72.0 (rank 306)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: —

America East Conference by rating

9 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Vermont	1-0	0-0	+6.2	94.5	88.3	95
2	Maine	0-0	0-0	−3.1	89.9	93.0	177
3	Bryant	1-0	0-0	−3.2	87.7	90.9	179
4	UAlbany	1-0	0-0	−4.3	88.4	92.7	187
5	NJIT	1-0	0-0	−4.9	88.0	93.0	190
6	UMBC	1-0	0-0	−5.5	86.0	91.5	193
7	Binghamton	0-1	0-0	−7.1	86.5	93.5	204
8	New Hampshire	1-0	0-0	−12.6	82.5	95.1	264
9	UMass Lowell	1-0	0-0	−22.1	78.3	100.3	337