Marist Red Foxes

Women's · Metro Conference · 0-1, 0-0 in conference · last L1

Next: at Bryant · Thu 5 Nov, 6 PM ET

Marist14%86%Bryant

Projected 55-70 · Game page

Makes the tournament1%From 20,000 simulated seasons

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 15-18

Net rating−15.6Rank 292 of 363 · offence 283, defence 301

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 15-18 (8 to 21 wins)
Projected conference record: 11-9
Wins or shares the conference title: <1%
Wins the conference tournament: 1%
Average seed if in the field: —
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field1%
Round of 320%
Sweet 160%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	at Drexelrank 148	Away	18%	68-81	L 47-62	Right
Thu 5 Nov6 PM ET	at Bryantrank 179	Away	14%	55-70	Live
Sun 8 Nov5 PM ET	vs NJITrank 190	Home	38%	62-66	—
Wed 11 Nov6 PM ET	at Duquesnerank 219	Away	21%	61-71	—

Rooting guide

Chance of the conference title now: <1% · the next 7 days

Thu 5 Nov: at BryantA win: <1% · a loss: <1%0 pts
Sun 8 Nov: vs NJITA win: <1% · a loss: <1%0 pts
Wed 11 Nov: at DuquesneA win: <1% · a loss: <1%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Justine HenryG	1	32.0	9.0	8.0	0.0	−0.9	+0.7
Kasey BretonesG	1	30.0	5.0	4.0	5.0	−4.7	−1.4
Madison OhmG	1	29.0	4.0	1.0	0.0	−2.8	−0.3
Ryan OldakerG	1	26.0	12.0	3.0	0.0	−2.6	−0.2
Karly FischerF	1	19.0	8.0	2.0	1.0	−4.8	−0.9
Julia CorsentinoG	1	19.0	4.0	3.0	0.0	−4.2	−0.7
Catie KlemmG	1	13.0	3.0	1.0	1.0	−2.4	−0.1
Claudia Clement MarsanF · transfer from Delaware	1	11.0	2.0	0.0	2.0	−3.2	−0.2
Chloe EscanillasG	1	11.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−3.4	−0.2
Morgan TompkinsG	1	7.0	0.0	1.0	1.0	−2.2	0.0
Kate RobbinsF	1	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−3.9	−0.1
Elle BruschukG	1	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−5.9	−0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	45.2%rank 96	44.2%rank 105	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	23.2%rank 81	22.4%rank 332	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	30.2%rank 360	32.2%rank 57	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	19.5%rank 278	20.3%rank 131	20.5%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 0.0 won, 0.2 expected (−0.2)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +2.9 points a game (they shot 21.4%, league 28.4%)
Opponents' free throws: −0.1 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −13.4
Last season's net rating: −15.3
Last season's minutes returning: 57%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −0.1
Change since preseason: −2.2

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 82.8 (rank 283)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 98.4 (rank 301)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 71.7 (rank 320)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −0.9 (rank 130)

Metro Conference by rating

13 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Fairfield	0-0	0-0	+15.4	101.3	85.9	55
2	Quinnipiac	1-0	0-0	−1.9	89.9	91.8	160
3	Siena	1-0	0-0	−9.3	86.6	95.9	226
4	Sacred Heart	0-1	0-0	−15.6	79.9	95.5	291
5	Marist	0-1	0-0	−15.6	82.8	98.4	292
6	Manhattan	1-0	0-0	−16.1	80.7	96.7	294
7	Merrimack	0-1	0-0	−16.5	78.7	95.2	297
8	Mount St. Mary's	0-1	0-0	−18.1	80.0	98.1	311
9	Rider	0-1	0-0	−19.4	75.5	95.0	320
10	Iona	1-1	0-0	−19.6	83.7	103.2	323
11	Canisius	0-0	0-0	−21.1	78.1	99.1	332
12	Saint Peter's	0-1	0-0	−26.3	76.8	103.1	350
13	Niagara	0-1	0-0	−30.9	69.9	100.9	359