Villanova Wildcats

Women's · Big East Conference · 0-1, 0-0 in conference · last L1

Next: at Princeton · Tue 10 Nov, 7 PM ET

Villanova34%66%Princeton

Projected 70-75 · Game page

Makes the tournament44%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 7.6

Wins the national title0%Final Four <1% · projected 21-11

Net rating+19.2Rank 39 of 363 · offence 25, defence 84

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 21-11 (16 to 26 wins)
Projected conference record: 14-6
Wins or shares the conference title: 1%
Wins the conference tournament: 1%
Average seed if in the field: 7.6
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field44%
Round of 3225%
Sweet 164%
Elite Eight1%
Final Four<1%
Title game<1%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Sun 1 Nov	vs Notre Damerank 18	Neutral	55%	70-68	L 75-99	Wrong
Tue 10 Nov7 PM ET	at Princetonrank 37	Away	34%	70-75	—
Thu 12 Nov7 PM ET	vs Merrimackrank 297	Home	100%	87-51	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 44% · the next 7 days

Tue 10 Nov: at PrincetonA win: 51% · a loss: 40%+11 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	45.3%rank 91	47.9%rank 357	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	22.8%rank 52	22.3%rank 333	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	33.9%rank 112	34.2%rank 269	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	18.8%rank 320	20.5%rank 236	20.5%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 0.0 won, 0.6 expected (−0.6)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −9.0 points a game (they shot 42.9%, league 28.5%)
Opponents' free throws: −0.4 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +25.4
Last season's net rating: +27.0
Last season's minutes returning: 72%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +1.4
Change since preseason: −6.2

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 106.7 (rank 25)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 87.4 (rank 84)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 73.6 (rank 133)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: +29.6 (rank 16)

Big East Conference by rating

11 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	UConn	1-0	0-0	+51.2	117.8	66.6	1
2	Villanova	0-1	0-0	+19.2	106.7	87.4	39
3	Creighton	1-0	0-0	+17.2	103.0	85.9	46
4	St. John's	1-0	0-0	+16.4	99.9	83.5	50
5	Seton Hall	1-0	0-0	+10.2	92.8	82.6	76
6	Butler	1-0	0-0	+10.0	98.8	88.8	77
7	Georgetown	1-0	0-0	+7.4	94.6	87.2	91
8	Marquette	1-0	0-0	+7.3	92.8	85.5	92
9	Providence	1-0	0-0	+3.7	93.3	89.6	109
10	Xavier	1-0	0-0	−0.8	91.3	92.2	147
11	DePaul	1-0	0-0	−1.2	93.6	94.8	151