UConn Huskies

Women's · Big East Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: at Michigan · Thu 5 Nov, 6:30 PM ET

UConn54%46%Michigan

Projected 73-72 · Game page

Makes the tournament100%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 1.2

Wins the national title38%Final Four 72% · projected 33-2

Net rating+51.2Rank 1 of 363 · offence 2, defence 1

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 33-2 (31 to 35 wins)
Projected conference record: 20-0
Wins or shares the conference title: >99%
Wins the conference tournament: 96%
Average seed if in the field: 1.2
A 1 seed: 87%

Makes the field100%
Round of 32>99%
Sweet 1698%
Elite Eight87%
Final Four72%
Title game52%
Champion38%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Cornellrank 200	Home	100%	107-52	W 100-35	Right
Thu 5 Nov6:30 PM ET	at Michiganrank 3	Away	54%	73-72	—
Sun 8 Nov2 PM ET	vs Iowarank 14	Home	95%	81-60	—
Thu 12 Nov6:30 PM ET	at Ohio Staterank 5	Away	67%	75-69	—

Rooting guide

Chance of a 1 seed now: 87% · the next 7 days

Thu 5 Nov: at MichiganA win: 89% · a loss: 84%+5 pts
Sun 8 Nov: vs IowaA win: 87% · a loss: 82%+5 pts
Thu 12 Nov: at Ohio StateA win: 89% · a loss: 82%+7 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Jovana PopovicG	1	24.0	19.0	3.0	1.0	+1.5	+1.6
KK ArnoldG	1	22.0	11.0	3.0	2.0	+13.5	+6.4
Sarah StrongF	1	22.0	19.0	4.0	5.0	+20.8	+9.5
Ashlynn ShadeG	1	20.0	5.0	4.0	3.0	+11.1	+5.0
Kayleigh HeckelG	1	20.0	4.0	7.0	2.0	+12.6	+5.5
Allie ZiebellG	1	18.0	7.0	4.0	0.0	+12.5	+5.0
Marine DursusG	1	16.0	11.0	0.0	1.0	+1.6	+1.1
Olivia VukosaC	1	16.0	4.0	8.0	2.0	+1.6	+1.1
Blanca QuinonezF	1	15.0	4.0	3.0	2.0	+14.3	+4.6
Jana El AlfyC	1	13.0	9.0	5.0	2.0	+12.3	+3.5
Kelis FisherG	1	8.0	7.0	2.0	3.0	+10.2	+1.9
Gandy Malou-MamelC	1	6.0	0.0	4.0	0.0	+8.2	+1.2

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	47.3%rank 13	43.0%rank 30	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	23.5%rank 113	25.6%rank 22	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	33.7%rank 127	31.2%rank 22	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	19.0%rank 309	18.3%rank 18	20.5%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +14.8 points a game (they shot 14.3%, league 28.4%)
Opponents' free throws: −0.6 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +52.4
Last season's net rating: +60.5
Last season's minutes returning: 73%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: 0.0
Change since preseason: −1.2

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 117.7 (rank 2)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 66.5 (rank 1)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 75.0 (rank 42)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −6.6 (rank 168)

Big East Conference by rating

11 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	UConn	1-0	0-0	+51.2	117.7	66.5	1
2	Villanova	0-1	0-0	+19.2	106.6	87.3	39
3	Creighton	1-0	0-0	+17.1	103.0	85.8	46
4	St. John's	1-0	0-0	+16.5	99.9	83.4	49
5	Seton Hall	1-0	0-0	+10.3	92.8	82.5	76
6	Butler	1-0	0-0	+10.0	98.8	88.8	77
7	Georgetown	1-0	0-0	+7.4	94.5	87.1	91
8	Marquette	1-0	0-0	+7.3	92.7	85.4	92
9	Providence	1-0	0-0	+3.7	93.2	89.5	108
10	Xavier	1-0	0-0	−0.9	91.2	92.1	148
11	DePaul	1-0	0-0	−1.1	93.5	94.7	152