Butler Bulldogs

Women's · Big East Conference · 2-0, 0-0 in conference · last W2

Next: at C Michigan · Sun 8 Nov, 1 PM ET

Butler86%14%C Michigan

Projected 75-61 · Game page

Makes the tournament29%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 9.3

Wins the national title0%Final Four <1% · projected 23-10

Net rating+14.8Rank 62 of 363 · offence 48, defence 79

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 23-10 (18 to 27 wins)
Projected conference record: 12-8
Wins or shares the conference title: <1%
Wins the conference tournament: 1%
Average seed if in the field: 9.3
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field29%
Round of 3211%
Sweet 161%
Elite Eight<1%
Final Four<1%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Tennessee Techrank 260	Home	84%	85-71	W 108-71	Right
Thu 5 Nov	vs Lipscombrank 294	Home	96%	81-58	W 104-57	Right
Sun 8 Nov1 PM ET	at Central Michiganrank 207	Away	86%	75-61	—
Thu 12 Nov7 PM ET	vs North Dakota Staterank 64	Home	67%	73-67	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 29% · the next 7 days

Sun 8 Nov: at Central MichiganA win: 29% · a loss: 27%+2 pts
Thu 12 Nov: vs North Dakota StateA win: 31% · a loss: 24%+7 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Tamar SingerG · transfer from Miami OH	2	26.5	11.5	2.5	11.5	+5.1	+3.5
Nevaeh JacksonG	2	26.0	10.5	3.5	3.0	+2.7	+2.3
Judit ValeroG · transfer from FIU	2	23.5	11.0	4.0	2.5	+0.9	+1.3
Lili KrasovecF · transfer from Purdue FW	2	19.5	12.0	5.0	1.5	+5.3	+2.7
Saniya JacksonG	2	18.5	15.5	3.5	1.5	+5.1	+2.5
Karina BystryG · transfer from N Kentucky	2	18.5	8.5	2.0	2.0	+4.0	+2.1
Laniah WillsG	2	17.0	7.5	8.0	0.5	+0.6	+0.8
Taya EllisF · transfer from Bowling Green	2	16.0	14.5	9.0	1.5	+4.2	+1.9
Jacy WeisbrodG	2	14.0	6.0	1.5	0.5	+0.6	+0.7
Destiny MachariaG · transfer from Purdue FW	2	9.0	3.5	0.5	0.5	0.0	+0.4
Sage MiskelG	2	5.5	4.5	0.5	0.5	+1.1	+0.3
Lexi BaerG	2	3.5	0.0	0.0	0.5	+1.1	+0.2
Olivia HastingsF	2	3.0	1.0	2.0	0.0	+1.2	+0.2

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	46.4%rank 34	45.2%rank 262	44.6%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	22.8%rank 50	23.7%rank 228	23.9%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	34.4%rank 82	30.3%rank 9	33.4%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	23.3%rank 20	20.6%rank 236	20.4%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 2.0 won, 1.8 expected (+0.2)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −0.7 points a game (they shot 29.2%, league 28.3%)
Opponents' free throws: −0.2 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

2 games played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +3.7
Last season's net rating: +4.4
Last season's minutes returning: 23%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +2.0
Change since preseason: +11.1

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 101.7 (rank 48)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 86.9 (rank 79)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 74.1 (rank 87)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −14.4 (rank 224)

Big East Conference by rating

11 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	UConn	1-1	0-0	+50.1	117.1	67.0	1
2	Villanova	0-1	0-0	+19.2	106.4	87.2	38
3	Creighton	1-0	0-0	+17.2	102.8	85.6	47
4	St. John's	1-0	0-0	+16.4	99.7	83.3	52
5	Butler	2-0	0-0	+14.8	101.7	86.9	62
6	Seton Hall	1-0	0-0	+10.2	92.6	82.4	77
7	Georgetown	1-0	0-0	+7.4	94.3	86.9	91
8	Marquette	1-0	0-0	+7.2	92.5	85.2	92
9	Providence	1-0	0-0	+3.7	93.0	89.4	109
10	Xavier	1-0	0-0	−0.8	91.1	91.9	147
11	DePaul	1-0	0-0	−1.2	93.3	94.5	150