Central Michigan Chippewas
Makes the tournament2%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 14.8
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 12-20
Net rating−7.4Rank 207 of 363 · offence 284, defence 120
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 12-20 (6 to 18 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 8-10
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 1%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 2%
- Average seed if in the field
- 14.8
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field2%
- Round of 320%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | vs Old Dominionrank 179 | Home | 69% | 84-77 | L 58-62 | Wrong |
| Thu 5 Nov | at Ohio Staterank 4 | Away | 0% | 47-90 | L 36-103 | Right |
| Sun 8 Nov1 PM ET | vs Butlerrank 77 | Home | 22% | 62-72 | — |
Rooting guide
- Sun 8 Nov: vs ButlerA win: 1% · a loss: 1%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Summer DavisG · transfer from Georgetown | 2 | 30.0 | 14.5 | 7.0 | 1.0 | +0.4 | +1.4 |
| Riley SmithF | 2 | 30.0 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | −2.4 | −0.1 |
| Indya DavisG · transfer from Georgetown | 2 | 24.5 | 8.5 | 7.0 | 2.5 | +1.3 | +1.6 |
| Nevaeh WilliamsG | 2 | 21.5 | 2.0 | 4.5 | 2.0 | −2.5 | −0.1 |
| Jailenn GreenG | 2 | 21.5 | 5.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | −2.6 | −0.2 |
| Kara BartelsC | 2 | 19.0 | 2.5 | 5.0 | 0.0 | −2.4 | −0.1 |
| Rylan BuschellG | 2 | 18.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | −3.3 | −0.4 |
| Lilah TurnbullG | 2 | 13.5 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 0.5 | −2.1 | 0.0 |
| Jawelle DaquinF | 2 | 9.5 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | −2.0 | 0.0 |
| Jayda MosleyG | 2 | 8.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −0.1 | +0.3 |
| Taylor JohnsonC | 1 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.2 | +0.1 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 40.8%rank 362 | 45.5%rank 283 | 44.6% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin | 26.9%rank 357 | 25.1%rank 46 | 23.9% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin | 32.0%rank 304 | 37.0%rank 359 | 33.5% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin | 19.7%rank 267 | 20.8%rank 257 | 20.4% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.7 expected (−0.7)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- −2.2 points a game (they shot 30.6%, league 28.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- −2.1 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- 0-1
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −2.6
- Last season's net rating
- +4.8
- Last season's minutes returning
- 32%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- +1.0
- Change since preseason
- −4.7
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 82.6 (rank 284)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 90.0 (rank 120)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 74.7 (rank 45)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- +18.8 (rank 38)
Mid-American Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miami (OH) | 2-0 | 0-0 | +9.5 | 91.7 | 82.3 | 80 |
| 2 | Ball State | 1-0 | 0-0 | +7.8 | 96.9 | 89.1 | 88 |
| 3 | Massachusetts | 0-1 | 0-0 | +0.5 | 91.1 | 90.5 | 137 |
| 4 | Toledo | 0-1 | 0-0 | +0.2 | 89.2 | 89.1 | 141 |
| 5 | Bowling Green | 1-0 | 0-0 | −1.0 | 90.0 | 90.9 | 148 |
| 6 | Ohio | 1-0 | 0-0 | −2.0 | 87.4 | 89.4 | 159 |
| 7 | Kent State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −3.1 | 91.1 | 94.2 | 174 |
| 8 | Central Michigan | 0-2 | 0-0 | −7.4 | 82.6 | 90.0 | 207 |
| 9 | Eastern Michigan | 0-1 | 0-0 | −10.1 | 86.5 | 96.6 | 233 |
| 10 | Buffalo | 1-0 | 0-0 | −12.2 | 86.7 | 98.9 | 257 |
| 11 | Western Michigan | 0-1 | 0-0 | −12.3 | 81.2 | 93.5 | 259 |
| 12 | Akron | 0-1 | 0-0 | −13.2 | 87.0 | 100.2 | 269 |