Bowling Green Falcons
Next: vs Bellarmine · Tue 10 Nov, 11 AM ETProjected 82-59 · Game page
Makes the tournament4%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 13.8
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 18-15
Net rating−3.3Rank 179 of 363 · offence 155, defence 192
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 18-15 (12 to 24 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 9-9
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 3%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 4%
- Average seed if in the field
- 13.8
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field4%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 16<1%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | vs Georgia Southernrank 188 | Home | 41% | 78-82 | W 82-59 | Wrong |
| Thu 5 Nov | vs Cleveland Staterank 157 | Home | 70% | 70-63 | W 77-73 | Right |
| Tue 10 Nov11 AM ET | vs Bellarminerank 344 | Home | 96% | 82-59 | — |
Rooting guide
- Tue 10 Nov: vs BellarmineA win: 4% · a loss: 4%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lauren GerkenF | 2 | 34.0 | 20.0 | 4.0 | 3.5 | +0.9 | +1.9 |
| Carol SilvaF | 2 | 33.0 | 22.0 | 9.0 | 3.5 | −1.1 | +0.7 |
| Sara CaetanoG | 2 | 27.5 | 12.0 | 8.0 | 3.0 | −1.1 | +0.5 |
| Mafalda MonteiroG | 2 | 24.0 | 11.5 | 4.0 | 2.5 | −1.1 | +0.5 |
| Joniyah Bland-FitzpatrickF | 2 | 20.5 | 6.0 | 5.5 | 1.5 | −0.6 | +0.6 |
| Kayla StidhamG | 2 | 17.0 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 0.5 | −0.9 | +0.4 |
| Aurelie VanderstraetenF | 2 | 16.5 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | +0.4 |
| Sol DepetrisG | 2 | 15.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 1.5 | −0.9 | +0.3 |
| Sophie AlexanderG | 2 | 11.0 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 2.0 | −0.7 | +0.3 |
| Eugenia NgungoC | 1 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −0.1 | +0.1 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 46.4%rank 43 | 43.4%rank 67 | 44.7% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin | 24.7%rank 293 | 22.3%rank 331 | 23.9% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin | 30.9%rank 336 | 33.6%rank 234 | 33.3% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin | 18.6%rank 333 | 23.5%rank 338 | 20.8% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 2.0 won, 1.1 expected (+0.9)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +10.1 points a game (they shot 14.6%, league 28.6%)
- Opponents' free throws
- +1.2 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- 1-0
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −5.9
- Last season's net rating
- −2.2
- Last season's minutes returning
- 28%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- 0.0
- Change since preseason
- +2.6
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 90.2 (rank 155)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 93.5 (rank 192)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 75.1 (rank 33)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −3.5 (rank 163)
Mid-American Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miami (OH) | 2-0 | 0-0 | +9.5 | 91.8 | 82.4 | 80 |
| 2 | Ball State | 1-0 | 0-0 | +7.9 | 97.1 | 89.2 | 87 |
| 3 | Massachusetts | 0-1 | 0-0 | +0.6 | 91.2 | 90.6 | 134 |
| 4 | Toledo | 0-1 | 0-0 | +0.3 | 89.4 | 89.2 | 143 |
| 5 | Ohio | 1-0 | 0-0 | −1.9 | 87.5 | 89.5 | 159 |
| 6 | Kent State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −3.0 | 91.3 | 94.3 | 172 |
| 7 | Bowling Green | 2-0 | 0-0 | −3.3 | 90.2 | 93.5 | 179 |
| 8 | Eastern Michigan | 0-2 | 0-0 | −6.2 | 89.7 | 95.9 | 197 |
| 9 | Central Michigan | 0-2 | 0-0 | −7.4 | 82.7 | 90.1 | 207 |
| 10 | Akron | 0-2 | 0-0 | −9.6 | 87.8 | 97.4 | 230 |
| 11 | Buffalo | 1-0 | 0-0 | −12.2 | 86.8 | 99.0 | 255 |
| 12 | Western Michigan | 0-1 | 0-0 | −12.2 | 81.4 | 93.6 | 256 |