St. John's Red Storm

Women's · Big East Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Wagner · Sat 7 Nov, 1 PM ET

Wagner0%100%St John's

Projected 84-41 · Game page

Makes the tournament24%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 9.3

Wins the national title0%Final Four <1% · projected 22-11

Net rating+16.4Rank 50 of 363 · offence 60, defence 47

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 22-11 (17 to 27 wins)
Projected conference record: 12-8
Wins or shares the conference title: <1%
Wins the conference tournament: 1%
Average seed if in the field: 9.3
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field24%
Round of 3211%
Sweet 161%
Elite Eight<1%
Final Four<1%
Title game<1%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Lafayetterank 303	Home	93%	87-66	W 95-37	Right
Sat 7 Nov1 PM ET	vs Wagnerrank 356	Home	100%	84-41	—
Wed 11 Nov2 PM ET	vs Quinnipiacrank 159	Home	92%	74-54	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 24% · the next 7 days

Wed 11 Nov: vs QuinnipiacA win: 24% · a loss: 22%+2 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Brooke MooreG	1	26.0	8.0	5.0	2.0	+5.2	+3.5
Sa'Mya WyattF	1	24.0	12.0	6.0	3.0	+5.0	+3.1
Ny'Ceara PryorG · transfer from Texas A&M	1	23.0	19.0	2.0	4.0	+8.6	+4.4
Janeya GrantG	1	23.0	14.0	2.0	1.0	+1.8	+1.6
Daniela AbiesF	1	18.0	10.0	4.0	0.0	+5.4	+2.4
Sanaa TrippG · transfer from Belmont	1	17.0	3.0	2.0	3.0	+2.1	+1.3
Olivia TuckerG · transfer from Campbell	1	16.0	5.0	1.0	0.0	+0.1	+0.7
Yohana FamiF	1	16.0	5.0	1.0	1.0	0.0	+0.6
Serenity LancasterF	1	15.0	8.0	6.0	0.0	+0.1	+0.6
Syvannah DawsonG	1	10.0	11.0	0.0	2.0	+0.2	+0.4
Julie BahatiF	1	6.0	0.0	3.0	0.0	+2.7	+0.5
Asia DonaldG · transfer from West Georgia	1	6.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	+1.6	+0.4

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	47.2%rank 16	43.4%rank 52	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	23.1%rank 74	25.6%rank 21	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	34.4%rank 80	32.0%rank 53	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	22.5%rank 30	23.5%rank 347	20.5%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 0.9 expected (+0.1)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +4.7 points a game (they shot 18.8%, league 28.5%)
Opponents' free throws: +0.3 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +9.9
Last season's net rating: +8.4
Last season's minutes returning: 48%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +0.5
Change since preseason: +6.6

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 99.9 (rank 60)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 83.5 (rank 47)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 71.7 (rank 319)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −17.1 (rank 229)

Big East Conference by rating

11 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	UConn	1-0	0-0	+51.2	117.8	66.6	1
2	Villanova	0-1	0-0	+19.2	106.7	87.4	39
3	Creighton	1-0	0-0	+17.2	103.0	85.9	46
4	St. John's	1-0	0-0	+16.4	99.9	83.5	50
5	Seton Hall	1-0	0-0	+10.2	92.8	82.6	76
6	Butler	1-0	0-0	+10.0	98.8	88.8	77
7	Georgetown	1-0	0-0	+7.4	94.6	87.2	91
8	Marquette	1-0	0-0	+7.3	92.8	85.5	92
9	Providence	1-0	0-0	+3.7	93.3	89.6	109
10	Xavier	1-0	0-0	−0.8	91.3	92.2	147
11	DePaul	1-0	0-0	−1.2	93.6	94.8	151