Wagner Seahawks

Women's · Northeast Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: at Lafayette · Thu 5 Nov, 8:30 PM ET

Wagner14%86%Lafayette

Projected 56-71 · Game page

Makes the tournament1%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 15.9

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 9-21

Net rating−29.1Rank 356 of 363 · offence 358, defence 347

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 9-21 (4 to 14 wins)
Projected conference record: 5-11
Wins or shares the conference title: 1%
Wins the conference tournament: 1%
Average seed if in the field: 15.9
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field1%
Round of 320%
Sweet 160%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result
Mon 2 Nov	vs SUNY Cortlandnot Division I	Home	—	—	W 80-72
Thu 5 Nov8:30 PM ET	at Lafayetterank 303	Away	14%	56-71	—
Sat 7 Nov1 PM ET	at St. John'srank 50	Away	0%	41-84	—
Thu 12 Nov7 PM ET	vs Rhode Islandrank 79	Home	2%	48-76	—

Rooting guide

Chance of the conference title now: 1% · the next 7 days

Thu 5 Nov: at LafayetteA win: <1% · a loss: 1%0 pts
Thu 12 Nov: vs Rhode IslandA win: 2% · a loss: 1%+1 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Lana BeslicG · transfer from Wyoming	1	37.0	12.0	4.0	5.0	−7.0	−3.3
Sophia PriestleyF · transfer from San Francisco	1	37.0	14.0	6.0	2.0	−4.5	−1.6
Alivia LandyG	1	33.0	16.0	6.0	1.0	−5.7	−2.2
Stella SgroG · transfer from San José St	1	26.0	14.0	1.0	1.0	−6.9	−2.3
Agatha AgbaG · transfer from S Illinois	1	24.0	12.0	5.0	2.0	−7.4	−2.3
Avery BlueG	1	22.0	12.0	3.0	1.0	−4.5	−1.0
Nahia EsnaolaF	1	11.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−4.3	−0.4
Sylia VigkaG	1	3.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−4.1	−0.1
Layla MappG	1	3.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−4.1	−0.1
Janna DauerF	1	2.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	−4.0	−0.1
Fati FallF	1	2.0	0.0	2.0	0.0	−4.0	−0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	44.7%rank 137	44.7%rank 132	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	23.8%rank 144	23.8%rank 126	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	33.5%rank 137	33.5%rank 133	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	20.5%rank 127	20.5%rank 139	20.5%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −29.1
Last season's net rating: −22.4
Last season's minutes returning: 7%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −2.7
Change since preseason: 0.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 72.2 (rank 358)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 101.2 (rank 347)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 73.5 (rank 142)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: —

Northeast Conference by rating

9 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Fairleigh Dickinson	0-2	0-0	−1.6	93.0	94.6	154
2	Stonehill	0-1	0-0	−18.0	84.6	102.6	309
3	Mercyhurst	0-1	0-0	−19.3	81.4	100.8	319
4	Chicago State	0-1	0-0	−23.7	80.1	103.8	342
5	Long Island University	0-2	0-0	−24.9	78.1	103.0	346
6	New Haven	1-0	0-0	−25.5	76.3	101.7	348
7	Central Connecticut	0-1	0-0	−29.0	72.9	101.9	355
8	Wagner	1-0	0-0	−29.1	72.2	101.2	356
9	Le Moyne	0-1	0-0	−30.7	74.6	105.3	357