Mercyhurst Lakers
Next: vs Penn State Beaver · Thu 5 Nov, 6 PM ET
Not rated: the opponent is outside Division I.
Makes the tournament7%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 15.9
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 17-17
Net rating−19.3Rank 319 of 363 · offence 294, defence 339
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 17-17 (11 to 22 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 10-6
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 5%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 7%
- Average seed if in the field
- 15.9
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field7%
- Round of 320%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 3 Nov | at Seton Hallrank 76 | Away | 2% | 55-84 | L 37-63 | Right |
| Thu 5 Nov6 PM ET | vs Penn State Beavernot Division I | Home | — | — | Live | |
| Sun 8 Nov1 PM ET | at Ohio Staterank 5 | Away | 0% | 41-96 | — | |
| Wed 11 Nov4:30 PM ET | at St. Bonaventurerank 206 | Away | 14% | 57-72 | — |
Rooting guide
- Wed 11 Nov: at St. BonaventureA win: 7% · a loss: 7%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cici HernandezG | 1 | 31.0 | 6.0 | 9.0 | 1.0 | −3.5 | −0.7 |
| Erica HallF | 1 | 25.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | −4.7 | −1.2 |
| Lena WalzG | 1 | 24.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −4.5 | −1.0 |
| Layke FieldsF · transfer from Robert Morris | 1 | 19.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | −2.1 | 0.0 |
| Alena FusettiG | 1 | 18.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | −5.6 | −1.1 |
| Carmaya BowmanF · transfer from Jacksonville | 1 | 18.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.5 | +0.9 |
| Lauren FilienF | 1 | 17.0 | 9.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.8 | −0.2 |
| Julia LewisG | 1 | 17.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | −8.1 | −1.8 |
| Sofia WilsonG | 1 | 12.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | −3.5 | −0.3 |
| Maya AguilarG | 1 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | −2.6 | 0.0 |
| Shannon HeineG | 1 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −7.3 | −0.5 |
| Niera StevensG | 1 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −2.5 | 0.0 |
| Natalie SpanoG | 1 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −2.5 | 0.0 |
| Ella CupkaG | 1 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −7.0 | −0.2 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 43.9%rank 282 | 44.7%rank 128 | 44.7% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin | 26.8%rank 356 | 24.4%rank 80 | 23.8% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin | 34.8%rank 65 | 33.4%rank 124 | 33.5% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin | 21.4%rank 75 | 18.6%rank 39 | 20.5% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.0 expected (0.0)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- 0.0 points a game (they shot 28.6%, league 28.5%)
- Opponents' free throws
- −0.9 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −18.3
- Last season's net rating
- −21.0
- Last season's minutes returning
- 73%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- 0.0
- Change since preseason
- −1.1
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 81.4 (rank 294)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 100.8 (rank 339)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 72.2 (rank 286)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- +10.2 (rank 74)
Northeast Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fairleigh Dickinson | 0-2 | 0-0 | −1.6 | 93.0 | 94.6 | 154 |
| 2 | Stonehill | 0-1 | 0-0 | −18.0 | 84.6 | 102.6 | 309 |
| 3 | Mercyhurst | 0-1 | 0-0 | −19.3 | 81.4 | 100.8 | 319 |
| 4 | Chicago State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −23.7 | 80.1 | 103.8 | 342 |
| 5 | Long Island University | 0-2 | 0-0 | −24.9 | 78.1 | 103.0 | 346 |
| 6 | New Haven | 1-0 | 0-0 | −25.5 | 76.3 | 101.7 | 348 |
| 7 | Central Connecticut | 0-1 | 0-0 | −29.0 | 72.9 | 101.9 | 355 |
| 8 | Wagner | 1-0 | 0-0 | −29.1 | 72.2 | 101.2 | 356 |
| 9 | Le Moyne | 0-1 | 0-0 | −30.7 | 74.6 | 105.3 | 357 |