Stonehill Skyhawks

Women's · Northeast Conference · 0-1, 0-0 in conference · last L1

Next: at Notre Dame · Fri 6 Nov, 7 PM ET

Stonehill0%100%Notre Dame

Projected 50-95 · Game page

Makes the tournament9%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 15.9

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 14-16

Net rating−18.0Rank 309 of 363 · offence 248, defence 351

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 14-16 (9 to 20 wins)
Projected conference record: 10-6
Wins or shares the conference title: 7%
Wins the conference tournament: 9%
Average seed if in the field: 15.9
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field9%
Round of 320%
Sweet 160%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Tue 3 Nov	at Providencerank 108	Away	3%	53-78	L 65-79	Right
Fri 6 Nov7 PM ET	at Notre Damerank 18	Away	0%	50-95	—
Sun 8 Nov3 PM ET	at DePaulrank 152	Away	8%	61-80	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 9% · the next 7 days

Sun 8 Nov: at DePaulA win: 7% · a loss: 9%−2 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Brooke PaquetteG	1	38.0	21.0	2.0	2.0	−3.2	−0.7
Ella PelletierG	1	32.0	7.0	1.0	8.0	−3.0	−0.5
Reese RoggenburkC	1	31.0	11.0	12.0	1.0	−2.3	−0.1
Megan SiasC	1	29.0	11.0	4.0	2.0	−2.7	−0.3
Phoena DadsonG	1	24.0	9.0	4.0	1.0	−6.5	−1.9
Breana DelaneyG	1	17.0	0.0	1.0	1.0	−5.9	−1.2
Julia WebsterF	1	16.0	4.0	3.0	1.0	−2.8	−0.2
Skyler WalkerG	1	7.0	2.0	0.0	0.0	−2.1	0.0
Bella MalloryC	1	6.0	0.0	2.0	0.0	−5.9	−0.4

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	46.3%rank 41	45.2%rank 257	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	24.6%rank 304	23.8%rank 224	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	35.6%rank 33	33.5%rank 134	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	20.3%rank 231	20.6%rank 242	20.5%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 0.0 won, 0.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +3.4 points a game (they shot 22.2%, league 28.4%)
Opponents' free throws: −0.1 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −19.1
Last season's net rating: −23.2
Last season's minutes returning: 96%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: 0.0
Change since preseason: +1.1

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 84.5 (rank 248)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 102.5 (rank 351)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 72.4 (rank 271)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: +3.7 (rank 95)

Northeast Conference by rating

9 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Fairleigh Dickinson	0-2	0-0	−1.6	93.0	94.5	157
2	Stonehill	0-1	0-0	−18.0	84.5	102.5	309
3	Mercyhurst	0-1	0-0	−19.4	81.3	100.7	319
4	Chicago State	0-1	0-0	−23.7	80.0	103.7	342
5	Long Island University	0-2	0-0	−24.9	78.0	103.0	346
6	New Haven	1-0	0-0	−25.5	76.2	101.7	348
7	Central Connecticut	0-1	0-0	−29.0	72.8	101.8	355
8	Wagner	1-0	0-0	−29.1	72.1	101.2	356
9	Le Moyne	0-1	0-0	−30.7	74.5	105.2	357