Seton Hall Pirates

Women's · Big East Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Indiana St · Fri 6 Nov, 11:30 AM ET

Indiana St2%98%Seton Hall

Projected 82-54 · Game page

Makes the tournament12%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 8.6

Wins the national title0%Final Four <1% · projected 17-16

Net rating+10.2Rank 76 of 363 · offence 119, defence 41

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 17-16 (11 to 22 wins)
Projected conference record: 10-10
Wins or shares the conference title: <1%
Wins the conference tournament: <1%
Average seed if in the field: 8.6
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field12%
Round of 325%
Sweet 16<1%
Elite Eight<1%
Final Four<1%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Tue 3 Nov	vs Mercyhurstrank 319	Home	98%	84-55	W 63-37	Right
Fri 6 Nov11:30 AM ET	vs Indiana Staterank 290	Home	98%	82-54	—
Thu 12 Nov7 PM ET	vs Fairfieldrank 56	Home	51%	66-65	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 12% · the next 7 days

Fri 6 Nov: vs Indiana StateA win: 13% · a loss: 12%+1 pts
Thu 12 Nov: vs FairfieldA win: 14% · a loss: 11%+3 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Ksenija ScepanovicF	1	34.0	7.0	5.0	7.0	−0.9	+0.8
Savannah CatalonG	1	27.0	6.0	1.0	1.0	+6.4	+4.2
Ari WoodardG	1	26.0	22.0	2.0	2.0	+2.2	+2.0
Ja'Kahla CraftG	1	25.0	8.0	5.0	0.0	+5.3	+3.4
Saniyah KingG · transfer from Mississippi St	1	25.0	0.0	2.0	5.0	+1.0	+1.4
Shailyn PinkneyG	1	15.0	2.0	2.0	1.0	+2.3	+1.2
Savanna JonesF	1	13.0	8.0	2.0	0.0	+1.5	+0.9
Inieye OruhF	1	12.0	6.0	3.0	0.0	−0.3	+0.4
Samari BankheadG · transfer from UCF	1	9.0	4.0	2.0	0.0	+0.6	+0.5
Shamira MortonF	1	5.0	0.0	2.0	0.0	−0.1	+0.2
Ari VidalesG	1	4.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−0.1	+0.1
Giselle DollarG	1	3.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−0.1	+0.1
Kenadie MaughanC	1	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−0.1	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	44.7%rank 234	43.9%rank 81	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	24.4%rank 284	26.8%rank 8	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	33.4%rank 239	34.8%rank 302	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	18.6%rank 330	21.4%rank 288	20.5%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +1.2 points a game (they shot 26.3%, league 28.5%)
Opponents' free throws: −1.2 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +9.2
Last season's net rating: +14.6
Last season's minutes returning: 41%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +2.0
Change since preseason: +1.1

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 92.8 (rank 119)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 82.6 (rank 41)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 72.8 (rank 225)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −19.3 (rank 241)

Big East Conference by rating

11 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	UConn	1-0	0-0	+51.2	117.8	66.6	1
2	Villanova	0-1	0-0	+19.2	106.7	87.4	39
3	Creighton	1-0	0-0	+17.2	103.0	85.9	46
4	St. John's	1-0	0-0	+16.4	99.9	83.5	50
5	Seton Hall	1-0	0-0	+10.2	92.8	82.6	76
6	Butler	1-0	0-0	+10.0	98.8	88.8	77
7	Georgetown	1-0	0-0	+7.4	94.6	87.2	91
8	Marquette	1-0	0-0	+7.3	92.8	85.5	92
9	Providence	1-0	0-0	+3.7	93.3	89.6	109
10	Xavier	1-0	0-0	−0.8	91.3	92.2	147
11	DePaul	1-0	0-0	−1.2	93.6	94.8	151