Xavier Musketeers

Women's · Big East Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: at Northwestern · Thu 5 Nov, 8 PM ET

Xavier25%75%Northwestern

Projected 62-71 · Game page

Makes the tournament<1%From 20,000 simulated seasons

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 10-20

Net rating−0.8Rank 147 of 363 · offence 140, defence 166

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 10-20 (5 to 15 wins)
Projected conference record: 4-16
Wins or shares the conference title: 0%
Wins the conference tournament: <1%
Average seed if in the field: —
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field<1%
Round of 32<1%
Sweet 160%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	at Purdue Fort Waynerank 227	Away	34%	75-81	W 75-63	Wrong
Thu 5 Nov8 PM ET	at Northwesternrank 103	Away	25%	62-71	—
Mon 9 Nov6:30 PM ET	vs Akronrank 270	Home	88%	77-62	—

Rooting guide

Chance of the conference title now: 0% · the next 7 days

Thu 5 Nov: at NorthwesternA win: 0% · a loss: 0%0 pts
Mon 9 Nov: vs AkronA win: 0% · a loss: 0%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Meri KanervaG	1	38.0	9.0	4.0	5.0	−0.8	+0.9
Lucile JeromeG	1	38.0	28.0	8.0	1.0	−1.3	+0.6
Diawna Carter-HartleyF · transfer from South Alabama	1	27.0	11.0	10.0	1.0	+1.8	+1.9
Kejia RanG	1	24.0	7.0	3.0	0.0	−1.2	+0.4
Kodee Williams-SefoG	1	23.0	7.0	2.0	0.0	−1.1	+0.4
Hila KarshG · transfer from Purdue	1	19.0	4.0	4.0	1.0	+1.7	+1.3
Maria Anais RodriguezF · transfer from Arkansas	1	17.0	5.0	4.0	3.0	+1.6	+1.2
Marta MoscarellaG	1	9.0	4.0	4.0	0.0	−0.8	+0.2
Morgan JenkinsNA	1	5.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	−0.7	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	45.7%rank 65	44.5%rank 119	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	21.4%rank 3	24.4%rank 75	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	35.9%rank 20	31.9%rank 47	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	18.9%rank 313	20.6%rank 245	20.5%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 0.3 expected (+0.7)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +1.7 points a game (they shot 26.1%, league 28.5%)
Opponents' free throws: −0.8 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −6.1
Last season's net rating: −2.9
Last season's minutes returning: 20%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +2.0
Change since preseason: +5.2

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 91.3 (rank 140)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 92.2 (rank 166)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 72.4 (rank 269)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −9.6 (rank 182)

Big East Conference by rating

11 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	UConn	1-0	0-0	+51.2	117.8	66.6	1
2	Villanova	0-1	0-0	+19.2	106.7	87.4	39
3	Creighton	1-0	0-0	+17.2	103.0	85.9	46
4	St. John's	1-0	0-0	+16.4	99.9	83.5	50
5	Seton Hall	1-0	0-0	+10.2	92.8	82.6	76
6	Butler	1-0	0-0	+10.0	98.8	88.8	77
7	Georgetown	1-0	0-0	+7.4	94.6	87.2	91
8	Marquette	1-0	0-0	+7.3	92.8	85.5	92
9	Providence	1-0	0-0	+3.7	93.3	89.6	109
10	Xavier	1-0	0-0	−0.8	91.3	92.2	147
11	DePaul	1-0	0-0	−1.2	93.6	94.8	151