Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons
Makes the tournament3%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 15.5
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 16-17
Net rating−9.6Rank 227 of 363 · offence 181, defence 295
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 16-17 (9 to 23 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 10-10
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 2%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 3%
- Average seed if in the field
- 15.5
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field3%
- Round of 320%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | vs Xavierrank 147 | Home | 66% | 81-75 | L 63-75 | Wrong |
| Fri 6 Nov12 PM ET | at DePaulrank 151 | Away | 18% | 66-79 | — | |
| Tue 10 Nov7 PM ET | at Western Michiganrank 257 | Away | 42% | 64-67 | — |
Rooting guide
- Fri 6 Nov: at DePaulA win: 2% · a loss: 2%0 pts
- Tue 10 Nov: at Western MichiganA win: 2% · a loss: 2%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nika LokicaG | 1 | 36.0 | 15.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | −1.8 | +0.2 |
| Avery WagnerF | 1 | 35.0 | 15.0 | 9.0 | 3.0 | −0.7 | +1.0 |
| Maddie LepleyG | 1 | 33.0 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | −2.5 | −0.2 |
| Claire GregwerF | 1 | 28.0 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | −2.4 | −0.1 |
| Meegan FahyG · transfer from SIUE | 1 | 15.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −3.0 | −0.2 |
| Karis ThomasG | 1 | 13.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | −1.9 | +0.1 |
| Amaris TimmonsF | 1 | 12.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −1.9 | +0.1 |
| Alyssa BerryG | 1 | 10.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | −2.5 | −0.1 |
| Bailee DuckG | 1 | 9.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −2.1 | 0.0 |
| Madison LewisG · transfer from E Kentucky | 1 | 8.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | −1.0 | +0.2 |
| Alivia BolingerG | 1 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −1.6 | 0.0 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 44.5%rank 242 | 45.7%rank 295 | 44.7% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin | 24.4%rank 289 | 21.4%rank 357 | 23.8% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin | 31.9%rank 316 | 35.9%rank 345 | 33.5% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin | 20.6%rank 117 | 18.9%rank 53 | 20.5% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.7 expected (−0.7)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +4.2 points a game (they shot 23.1%, league 28.5%)
- Opponents' free throws
- +1.1 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −4.4
- Last season's net rating
- +3.6
- Last season's minutes returning
- 13%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −0.2
- Change since preseason
- −5.2
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 88.7 (rank 181)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 98.2 (rank 295)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 74.2 (rank 84)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −0.8 (rank 129)
Horizon League by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Green Bay | 0-1 | 0-0 | +9.0 | 96.3 | 87.3 | 83 |
| 2 | Youngstown State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −2.0 | 88.5 | 90.4 | 160 |
| 3 | Cleveland State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −3.3 | 88.8 | 92.1 | 181 |
| 4 | IU Indianapolis | 0-1 | 0-0 | −5.8 | 89.0 | 94.8 | 195 |
| 5 | Purdue Fort Wayne | 0-1 | 0-0 | −9.6 | 88.7 | 98.2 | 227 |
| 6 | Oakland | 1-0 | 0-0 | −9.7 | 88.2 | 97.8 | 228 |
| 7 | Northern Kentucky | 1-0 | 0-0 | −11.5 | 85.5 | 96.9 | 244 |
| 8 | Robert Morris | 0-1 | 0-0 | −12.5 | 83.6 | 96.1 | 263 |
| 9 | Milwaukee | 0-1 | 0-0 | −12.8 | 85.3 | 98.1 | 265 |
| 10 | Detroit Mercy | 1-1 | 0-0 | −14.0 | 83.3 | 97.3 | 278 |
| 11 | Wright State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −14.1 | 86.6 | 100.7 | 281 |
| 12 | Northern Illinois | 1-0 | 0-0 | −18.2 | 81.8 | 100.0 | 312 |