West Florida Argonauts

Women's · Atlantic Sun Conference · 0-1, 0-0 in conference · last L1

Next: at W Carolina · Thu 5 Nov, 6 PM ET

West Florida49%51%W Carolina

Projected 66-66 · Game page

Makes the tournament2%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 15.8

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 14-18

Net rating−16.4Rank 296 of 363 · offence 255, defence 335

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 14-18 (9 to 20 wins)
Projected conference record: 5-9
Wins or shares the conference title: 1%
Wins the conference tournament: 2%
Average seed if in the field: 15.8
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field2%
Round of 320%
Sweet 160%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Tue 3 Nov	at East Tennessee Staterank 155	Away	28%	59-67	L 51-73	Right
Thu 5 Nov6 PM ET	at Western Carolinarank 335	Away	49%	66-66	Live
Mon 9 Nov11:30 AM ET	vs Pensacola Christiannot Division I	Home	—	—	—
Wed 11 Nov6 PM ET	at Florida Staterank 68	Away	1%	56-86	—

Rooting guide

Chance of the conference title now: 1% · the next 7 days

Thu 5 Nov: at Western CarolinaA win: 1% · a loss: 1%0 pts
Wed 11 Nov: at Florida StateA win: 1% · a loss: 1%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Annarose TyreG	1	30.0	2.0	6.0	0.0	−2.9	−0.4
Finley KennedyF	1	30.0	6.0	5.0	4.0	−2.9	−0.4
Janai JordanG	1	29.0	15.0	3.0	0.0	−2.9	−0.4
Nia ColemanG	1	21.0	6.0	3.0	0.0	−2.7	−0.2
Giselle EkeC	1	19.0	8.0	1.0	1.0	−8.1	−2.1
Ebba ZalamansF	1	16.0	4.0	4.0	1.0	−2.5	−0.1
Kendall LacosteG	1	16.0	5.0	1.0	0.0	−2.6	−0.1
Presley HughesF	1	11.0	0.0	1.0	1.0	−2.4	−0.1
Maddy RendallF	1	8.0	0.0	4.0	0.0	−2.3	0.0
Sinaya GibsonF	1	5.0	2.0	1.0	0.0	−2.2	0.0

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	43.6%rank 300	43.9%rank 81	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	23.3%rank 89	22.8%rank 308	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	34.6%rank 70	34.5%rank 285	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	19.6%rank 271	18.4%rank 22	20.5%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 0.0 won, 0.3 expected (−0.3)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +11.9 points a game (they shot 14.3%, league 28.5%)
Opponents' free throws: +0.5 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Change since preseason: —
Offence, points per 100 possessions: 84.2 (rank 255)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 100.6 (rank 335)

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 73.1 (rank 183)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −1.6 (rank 137)

Atlantic Sun Conference by rating

8 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Florida Gulf Coast	0-1	0-0	+0.6	89.6	89.0	137
2	Jacksonville	1-0	0-0	−0.6	89.5	90.1	146
3	North Florida	0-1	0-0	−9.2	87.4	96.6	223
4	Lipscomb	0-1	0-0	−11.5	85.1	96.6	246
5	Stetson	1-1	0-0	−11.6	83.1	94.8	249
6	West Florida	0-1	0-0	−16.4	84.2	100.6	296
7	Queens University	0-2	0-0	−19.2	76.7	96.0	318
8	Bellarmine	0-1	0-0	−24.3	79.8	104.0	343