Florida Gulf Coast Eagles

Women's · Atlantic Sun Conference · 0-1, 0-0 in conference · last L1

Next: vs Arkansas St · Sat 7 Nov, 2 PM ET

Arkansas St37%63%FGCU

Projected 70-65 · Game page

Makes the tournament42%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 14.7

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 23-11

Net rating+0.6Rank 136 of 363 · offence 162, defence 105

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 23-11 (18 to 28 wins)
Projected conference record: 11-3
Wins or shares the conference title: 54%
Wins the conference tournament: 42%
Average seed if in the field: 14.7
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field42%
Round of 32<1%
Sweet 16<1%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Tue 3 Nov	at Indianarank 42	Away	10%	58-77	L 50-79	Right
Sat 7 Nov2 PM ET	vs Arkansas Staterank 127	Home	63%	70-65	—
Wed 11 Nov7 PM ET	vs Ave Marianot Division I	Home	—	—	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 42% · the next 7 days

Sat 7 Nov: vs Arkansas StateA win: 42% · a loss: 42%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Lily ZeinstraG · transfer from Butler	1	30.0	2.0	5.0	3.0	+0.9	+1.6
Cerina RolleG	1	25.0	0.0	3.0	0.0	−0.3	+0.8
Karina GordonG	1	24.0	0.0	2.0	1.0	−1.1	+0.5
Sinai DouglasG	1	24.0	13.0	3.0	2.0	+1.4	+1.5
Denika LightbourneG · transfer from FIU	1	22.0	10.0	3.0	1.0	+0.5	+1.1
Amelia HobsonG · transfer from N Dakota St	1	19.0	2.0	4.0	1.0	0.0	+0.7
Ari TurlaG	1	19.0	3.0	1.0	0.0	−1.6	+0.2
Jalei PillowF	1	15.0	6.0	1.0	0.0	−0.6	+0.4
Eve AlexanderF	1	13.0	7.0	3.0	0.0	+2.6	+1.1
Elle McCullochG	1	7.0	4.0	1.0	0.0	−1.3	+0.1
Airah LavyG	1	2.0	3.0	0.0	1.0	+0.9	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	43.1%rank 316	45.1%rank 254	44.6%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	23.6%rank 122	24.2%rank 105	23.9%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	32.6%rank 269	33.8%rank 243	33.4%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	21.2%rank 86	20.6%rank 239	20.4%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 0.0 won, 0.1 expected (−0.1)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −4.6 points a game (they shot 33.3%, league 28.3%)
Opponents' free throws: +1.9 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +1.8
Last season's net rating: −0.5
Last season's minutes returning: 66%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +1.8
Change since preseason: −1.2

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 89.3 (rank 162)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 88.7 (rank 105)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 72.3 (rank 266)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: +18.3 (rank 42)

Atlantic Sun Conference by rating

8 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Florida Gulf Coast	0-1	0-0	+0.6	89.3	88.7	136
2	Jacksonville	1-0	0-0	−0.6	89.3	89.9	145
3	North Florida	0-1	0-0	−9.3	86.9	96.2	226
4	Stetson	1-1	0-0	−11.6	82.9	94.5	249
5	Lipscomb	0-2	0-0	−16.3	83.1	99.4	294
6	Queens University	0-2	0-0	−19.4	76.4	95.8	323
7	West Florida	0-2	0-0	−20.1	83.8	103.9	330
8	Bellarmine	1-1	0-0	−24.2	79.5	103.8	343