Arkansas State Red Wolves
Makes the tournament6%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 13.1
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 18-14
Net rating+1.3Rank 130 of 363 · offence 139, defence 120
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 18-14 (11 to 24 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 11-7
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 6%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 5%
- Average seed if in the field
- 13.1
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field6%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 16<1%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | at Ball Staterank 87 | Away | 14% | 77-93 | L 74-84 | Right |
| Sat 7 Nov2 PM ET | at Florida Gulf Coastrank 139 | Away | 38% | 66-70 | — | |
| Wed 11 Nov8 PM ET | at Loyola Chicagorank 235 | Away | 66% | 72-66 | — |
Rooting guide
- Sat 7 Nov: at Florida Gulf CoastA win: 7% · a loss: 5%+1 pts
- Wed 11 Nov: at Loyola ChicagoA win: 6% · a loss: 5%+1 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crislyn RoseG | 1 | 34.0 | 28.0 | 4.0 | 7.0 | +3.8 | +3.9 |
| Amina GrayG · transfer from Gardner-Webb | 1 | 27.0 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −1.1 | +0.5 |
| Monica MarshG · transfer from Grambling | 1 | 20.0 | 15.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | −1.3 | +0.3 |
| Audreonia BensonG · transfer from UCF | 1 | 20.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | +0.3 | +0.9 |
| Jermesha FriersonG · transfer from Delaware St | 1 | 17.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | −0.9 | +0.4 |
| Angela CarrollF · transfer from Texas St | 1 | 17.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | −0.8 | +0.4 |
| Ta'Niyah DavisG | 1 | 16.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | −0.5 | +0.5 |
| Maya ChocanoG · transfer from UC Riverside | 1 | 13.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −1.5 | +0.2 |
| Jaidyn ElamG | 1 | 13.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | −0.4 | +0.4 |
| Allyson FergusonF | 1 | 13.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +1.1 | +0.8 |
| Jasmine JordanC · transfer from E Kentucky | 1 | 10.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | +2.4 | +0.9 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 44.4%rank 230 | 44.7%rank 205 | 44.7% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin | 23.2%rank 93 | 25.6%rank 32 | 23.9% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin | 33.9%rank 115 | 34.4%rank 283 | 33.3% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin | 22.4%rank 47 | 23.7%rank 342 | 20.8% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.1 expected (−0.1)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +1.3 points a game (they shot 26.3%, league 28.6%)
- Opponents' free throws
- −0.5 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −1.0
- Last season's net rating
- +11.7
- Last season's minutes returning
- 22%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −10.2
- Change since preseason
- +2.4
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 91.5 (rank 139)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 90.2 (rank 120)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 76.8 (rank 5)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- +7.9 (rank 92)
Sun Belt Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Madison | 1-1 | 0-0 | +16.9 | 98.5 | 81.6 | 49 |
| 2 | Louisiana Tech | 2-0 | 0-0 | +6.2 | 94.4 | 88.2 | 93 |
| 3 | Troy | 2-0 | 0-0 | +3.7 | 94.9 | 91.2 | 106 |
| 4 | Coastal Carolina | 2-0 | 0-0 | +2.8 | 90.9 | 88.2 | 114 |
| 5 | Marshall | 1-0 | 0-0 | +2.0 | 93.3 | 91.3 | 121 |
| 6 | Arkansas State | 0-1 | 0-0 | +1.3 | 91.5 | 90.2 | 130 |
| 7 | App State | 2-0 | 0-0 | +0.6 | 90.2 | 89.5 | 134 |
| 8 | Southern Miss | 1-1 | 0-0 | −3.0 | 87.4 | 90.5 | 175 |
| 9 | Old Dominion | 2-0 | 0-0 | −3.3 | 87.2 | 90.5 | 180 |
| 10 | Georgia Southern | 0-2 | 0-0 | −5.3 | 87.2 | 92.5 | 188 |
| 11 | South Alabama | 1-0 | 0-0 | −8.2 | 88.6 | 96.8 | 212 |
| 12 | Georgia State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −9.8 | 89.3 | 99.1 | 231 |
| 13 | Louisiana | 1-0 | 0-0 | −10.9 | 83.3 | 94.3 | 239 |
| 14 | UL Monroe | 1-1 | 0-0 | −13.4 | 79.9 | 93.2 | 270 |