South Alabama Jaguars
Makes the tournament<1%From 20,000 simulated seasons
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 13-20
Net rating−9.0Rank 222 of 363 · offence 189, defence 278
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 13-20 (7 to 19 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 6-12
- Wins or shares the conference title
- <1%
- Wins the conference tournament
- <1%
- Average seed if in the field
- —
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field<1%
- Round of 320%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | at Akronrank 268 | Away | 42% | 80-83 | W 75-74 | Wrong |
| Sat 7 Nov2 PM ET | vs UABrank 214 | Home | 63% | 71-66 | — | |
| Mon 9 Nov6:30 PM ET | at UCFrank 161 | Away | 20% | 64-75 | — | |
| Wed 11 Nov1 PM ET | at Florida Atlanticrank 218 | Away | 34% | 64-69 | — |
Rooting guide
- Sat 7 Nov: vs UABA win: <1% · a loss: <1%0 pts
- Mon 9 Nov: at UCFA win: <1% · a loss: <1%0 pts
- Wed 11 Nov: at Florida AtlanticA win: <1% · a loss: <1%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julieta CejaF | 1 | 39.0 | 12.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | −1.6 | +0.4 |
| Jolie MantzG | 1 | 30.0 | 16.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | −1.3 | +0.5 |
| Deborah OrianegbenaF · transfer from UNC Asheville | 1 | 29.0 | 9.0 | 12.0 | 0.0 | −2.9 | −0.4 |
| CJ WilsonG · transfer from Prairie View | 1 | 28.0 | 20.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | −2.7 | −0.3 |
| Terren CoffilG | 1 | 24.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −1.3 | +0.4 |
| Jaida RedwineG | 1 | 17.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | −1.0 | +0.3 |
| Cam GolstonG | 1 | 13.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | −0.9 | +0.3 |
| Esther KursiteC · transfer from Sacred Heart | 1 | 10.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | −2.6 | −0.1 |
| Aroa MangasG | 1 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | −1.3 | +0.1 |
| Hannah DibadjouF | 1 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | −0.6 | +0.1 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 45.1%rank 109 | 43.2%rank 53 | 44.6% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin | 23.3%rank 86 | 23.4%rank 261 | 23.9% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin | 35.3%rank 40 | 31.9%rank 53 | 33.4% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin | 20.6%rank 129 | 23.8%rank 351 | 20.4% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 1.0 won, 0.4 expected (+0.6)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +4.1 points a game (they shot 21.1%, league 28.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- −4.3 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- 1-0
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −10.1
- Last season's net rating
- −0.6
- Last season's minutes returning
- 16%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −9.3
- Change since preseason
- +1.1
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 87.7 (rank 189)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 96.7 (rank 278)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 73.8 (rank 115)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −13.2 (rank 211)
Sun Belt Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Madison | 1-1 | 0-0 | +17.0 | 98.4 | 81.4 | 48 |
| 2 | Louisiana Tech | 2-0 | 0-0 | +6.3 | 94.2 | 87.9 | 94 |
| 3 | Troy | 1-0 | 0-0 | +3.8 | 94.8 | 91.0 | 108 |
| 4 | Coastal Carolina | 2-0 | 0-0 | +2.9 | 90.8 | 87.9 | 112 |
| 5 | Marshall | 1-0 | 0-0 | +2.1 | 93.2 | 91.0 | 120 |
| 6 | Arkansas State | 0-1 | 0-0 | +1.4 | 91.3 | 89.9 | 127 |
| 7 | App State | 2-0 | 0-0 | −0.3 | 89.8 | 90.1 | 143 |
| 8 | Georgia Southern | 0-1 | 0-0 | −1.8 | 90.6 | 92.3 | 155 |
| 9 | Old Dominion | 2-0 | 0-0 | −3.2 | 87.0 | 90.2 | 179 |
| 10 | Southern Miss | 1-0 | 0-0 | −7.7 | 88.0 | 95.7 | 209 |
| 11 | South Alabama | 1-0 | 0-0 | −9.0 | 87.7 | 96.7 | 222 |
| 12 | Georgia State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −9.7 | 89.1 | 98.9 | 230 |
| 13 | Louisiana | 1-0 | 0-0 | −10.9 | 83.1 | 94.0 | 239 |
| 14 | UL Monroe | 0-1 | 0-0 | −13.3 | 79.7 | 93.0 | 270 |