UL Monroe Warhawks
Next: vs Centenary (LA) · Thu 5 Nov, 7:30 PM ET
Not rated: the opponent is outside Division I.
Makes the tournament<1%From 20,000 simulated seasons
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 9-22
Net rating−13.3Rank 273 of 363 · offence 312, defence 188
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 9-22 (5 to 14 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 4-14
- Wins or shares the conference title
- <1%
- Wins the conference tournament
- <1%
- Average seed if in the field
- —
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field<1%
- Round of 320%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | at Ohiorank 161 | Away | 14% | 75-90 | L 46-57 | Right |
| Thu 5 Nov7:30 PM ET | vs Centenary (LA)not Division I | Home | — | — | — | |
| Mon 9 Nov7:30 PM ET | vs Central Arkansasrank 116 | Home | 27% | 59-68 | — |
Rooting guide
- Mon 9 Nov: vs Central ArkansasA win: 0% · a loss: <1%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nevaeh ScottG · transfer from Old Dominion | 1 | 32.0 | 9.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | −3.0 | −0.5 |
| Kylee HuntG · transfer from N Kentucky | 1 | 31.0 | 9.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | −3.0 | −0.5 |
| Kayla LindseyG · transfer from Mount St Marys | 1 | 23.0 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | −1.6 | +0.2 |
| Erin HenryG · transfer from Coppin St | 1 | 19.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | −3.6 | −0.5 |
| Lea NadolnyG | 1 | 17.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | −1.9 | +0.1 |
| Roge'Ne' HillardC | 1 | 16.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | −1.8 | +0.1 |
| Summer FaleafaF | 1 | 16.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | −1.9 | +0.1 |
| Destini WardG | 1 | 15.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | −1.8 | +0.1 |
| Aiyanna CulverG · transfer from Chicago St | 1 | 11.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | −3.6 | −0.3 |
| Kyla McBrideF · transfer from Texas St | 1 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | −3.4 | −0.2 |
| Amani WilliamsF · transfer from Presbyterian | 1 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | −7.0 | −0.5 |
| Nuria MucongoNA | 1 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −1.5 | +0.1 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 43.2%rank 322 | 42.7%rank 22 | 44.7% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin | 25.8%rank 348 | 25.0%rank 45 | 23.8% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin | 35.6%rank 31 | 32.9%rank 96 | 33.5% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin | 21.9%rank 51 | 20.9%rank 260 | 20.5% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.1 expected (−0.1)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +3.4 points a game (they shot 25.0%, league 28.5%)
- Opponents' free throws
- −1.4 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −13.7
- Last season's net rating
- +1.5
- Last season's minutes returning
- 0%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −7.8
- Change since preseason
- +0.4
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 80.0 (rank 312)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 93.3 (rank 188)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 74.1 (rank 90)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −2.0 (rank 140)
Sun Belt Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Madison | 0-1 | 0-0 | +15.5 | 97.7 | 82.3 | 55 |
| 2 | Louisiana Tech | 2-0 | 0-0 | +6.3 | 94.5 | 88.2 | 94 |
| 3 | Troy | 1-0 | 0-0 | +3.7 | 95.0 | 91.2 | 108 |
| 4 | Coastal Carolina | 2-0 | 0-0 | +2.9 | 91.0 | 88.2 | 112 |
| 5 | Marshall | 1-0 | 0-0 | +2.1 | 93.4 | 91.3 | 120 |
| 6 | Arkansas State | 0-1 | 0-0 | +1.4 | 91.6 | 90.2 | 127 |
| 7 | App State | 2-0 | 0-0 | −0.3 | 90.1 | 90.4 | 144 |
| 8 | Georgia Southern | 0-1 | 0-0 | −1.8 | 90.8 | 92.6 | 157 |
| 9 | Old Dominion | 1-0 | 0-0 | −2.7 | 86.8 | 89.6 | 169 |
| 10 | Southern Miss | 1-0 | 0-0 | −7.7 | 88.3 | 96.0 | 208 |
| 11 | South Alabama | 1-0 | 0-0 | −9.0 | 88.0 | 97.0 | 220 |
| 12 | Georgia State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −9.8 | 89.4 | 99.1 | 229 |
| 13 | Louisiana | 1-0 | 0-0 | −10.9 | 83.4 | 94.3 | 238 |
| 14 | UL Monroe | 0-1 | 0-0 | −13.3 | 80.0 | 93.3 | 273 |