App State Mountaineers
Makes the tournament4%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 12.9
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 17-14
Net rating−0.3Rank 144 of 363 · offence 155, defence 126
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 17-14 (11 to 23 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 9-9
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 2%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 3%
- Average seed if in the field
- 12.9
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field4%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 16<1%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | at Eastern Michiganrank 232 | Away | 48% | 78-79 | W 74-62 | Wrong |
| Wed 4 Nov | vs Montreatnot Division I | Home | — | — | W 107-43 | |
| Wed 11 Nov7 PM ET | at Davidsonrank 66 | Away | 12% | 56-72 | — |
Rooting guide
- Wed 11 Nov: at DavidsonA win: 7% · a loss: 4%+3 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joi WilliamsG · transfer from Radford | 2 | 25.0 | 11.5 | 4.0 | 4.0 | +2.0 | +1.9 |
| Torin RogersG · transfer from UNC Wilmington | 2 | 24.5 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 1.0 | −2.8 | −0.3 |
| Daisia MitchellG | 2 | 24.0 | 12.0 | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.7 | +1.2 |
| Feryal Defne AtliF | 2 | 23.0 | 10.5 | 5.5 | 0.5 | −0.8 | +0.6 |
| Raven PrestonG · transfer from Wake Forest | 2 | 22.0 | 10.5 | 6.5 | 2.5 | +2.4 | +1.8 |
| Jadyn AtchisonG · transfer from UT Arlington | 2 | 20.0 | 14.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | −0.9 | +0.4 |
| Jayden McBrideG | 2 | 19.0 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 0.5 | −0.5 | +0.6 |
| Addie BielF | 2 | 13.0 | 6.0 | 4.5 | 0.0 | +1.4 | +0.8 |
| Riley StokerG | 2 | 12.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | −0.7 | +0.3 |
| Isa RomanG | 2 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | −2.1 | 0.0 |
| Jaida McClureG | 1 | 13.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | −0.9 | +0.3 |
| Zoe SmithF | 1 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −0.8 | +0.2 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 47.1%rank 17 | 43.2%rank 38 | 44.7% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin | 23.8%rank 241 | 25.3%rank 34 | 23.8% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin | 34.5%rank 74 | 33.9%rank 250 | 33.5% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin | 18.8%rank 320 | 19.7%rank 103 | 20.5% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 1.0 won, 0.5 expected (+0.5)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- −3.5 points a game (they shot 35.3%, league 28.5%)
- Opponents' free throws
- −3.2 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −3.0
- Last season's net rating
- −2.2
- Last season's minutes returning
- 46%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −3.9
- Change since preseason
- +2.7
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 90.1 (rank 155)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 90.4 (rank 126)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 72.0 (rank 306)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −10.1 (rank 184)
Sun Belt Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Madison | 0-1 | 0-0 | +15.5 | 97.7 | 82.3 | 55 |
| 2 | Louisiana Tech | 2-0 | 0-0 | +6.3 | 94.5 | 88.2 | 94 |
| 3 | Troy | 1-0 | 0-0 | +3.7 | 95.0 | 91.2 | 108 |
| 4 | Coastal Carolina | 2-0 | 0-0 | +2.9 | 91.0 | 88.2 | 112 |
| 5 | Marshall | 1-0 | 0-0 | +2.1 | 93.4 | 91.3 | 120 |
| 6 | Arkansas State | 0-1 | 0-0 | +1.4 | 91.6 | 90.2 | 127 |
| 7 | App State | 2-0 | 0-0 | −0.3 | 90.1 | 90.4 | 144 |
| 8 | Georgia Southern | 0-1 | 0-0 | −1.8 | 90.8 | 92.6 | 157 |
| 9 | Old Dominion | 1-0 | 0-0 | −2.7 | 86.8 | 89.6 | 169 |
| 10 | Southern Miss | 1-0 | 0-0 | −7.7 | 88.3 | 96.0 | 208 |
| 11 | South Alabama | 1-0 | 0-0 | −9.0 | 88.0 | 97.0 | 220 |
| 12 | Georgia State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −9.8 | 89.4 | 99.1 | 229 |
| 13 | Louisiana | 1-0 | 0-0 | −10.9 | 83.4 | 94.3 | 238 |
| 14 | UL Monroe | 0-1 | 0-0 | −13.3 | 80.0 | 93.3 | 273 |