North Florida Ospreys
Next: vs Palm Beach Atlantic · Sat 7 Nov, 12:30 PM ET
Not rated: the opponent is outside Division I.
Makes the tournament9%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 15.5
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 19-16
Net rating−9.3Rank 227 of 363 · offence 209, defence 267
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 19-16 (13 to 25 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 8-6
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 9%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 9%
- Average seed if in the field
- 15.5
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field9%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 5 Nov | at Florida Staterank 71 | Away | 2% | 55-85 | L 63-74 | Right |
| Sat 7 Nov12:30 PM ET | vs Palm Beach Atlanticnot Division I | Home | — | — | — | |
| Tue 10 Nov11 AM ET | vs Edward Watersnot Division I | Home | — | — | — | |
| Thu 12 Nov8 PM ET | at Little Rockrank 231 | Away | 37% | 63-68 | — |
Rooting guide
- Thu 12 Nov: at Little RockA win: 9% · a loss: 10%−1 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dezuray McGillF | 1 | 27.0 | 16.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | +0.6 |
| Jamisyn StinsonG | 1 | 25.0 | 14.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 | −1.8 | +0.1 |
| Alexa WashingtonG | 1 | 24.0 | 11.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | −3.2 | −0.5 |
| Belle RatliffF | 1 | 22.0 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | −2.0 | 0.0 |
| Brianna MeadG · transfer from Temple | 1 | 20.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | −1.7 | +0.2 |
| Elle BlatchfordG | 1 | 19.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | −2.3 | 0.0 |
| Mya MayberryG | 1 | 19.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | −2.0 | +0.1 |
| Georgi BuzzettiF | 1 | 18.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | −3.0 | −0.3 |
| Brooke WinchesterF · transfer from Ball State | 1 | 13.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +0.7 | +0.7 |
| Alonya WaldonG | 1 | 11.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −1.2 | +0.2 |
| Abby KnauffG | 1 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −4.0 | 0.0 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 44.7%rank 133 | 43.9%rank 93 | 44.6% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin | 22.6%rank 44 | 23.8%rank 225 | 23.9% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin | 33.9%rank 115 | 35.5%rank 333 | 33.5% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin | 20.2%rank 230 | 18.7%rank 42 | 20.4% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.0 expected (0.0)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +1.5 points a game (they shot 26.7%, league 28.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- +0.8 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −12.3
- Last season's net rating
- −15.1
- Last season's minutes returning
- 92%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- +0.2
- Change since preseason
- +3.0
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 87.0 (rank 209)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 96.3 (rank 267)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 73.5 (rank 125)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- +12.1 (rank 70)
Atlantic Sun Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Florida Gulf Coast | 0-1 | 0-0 | +0.6 | 89.4 | 88.8 | 136 |
| 2 | Jacksonville | 1-0 | 0-0 | −0.6 | 89.4 | 90.0 | 146 |
| 3 | North Florida | 0-1 | 0-0 | −9.3 | 87.0 | 96.3 | 227 |
| 4 | Lipscomb | 0-1 | 0-0 | −11.5 | 84.9 | 96.4 | 248 |
| 5 | Stetson | 1-1 | 0-0 | −11.6 | 83.0 | 94.6 | 251 |
| 6 | Queens University | 0-2 | 0-0 | −19.2 | 76.6 | 95.8 | 320 |
| 7 | West Florida | 0-2 | 0-0 | −20.2 | 83.8 | 104.0 | 331 |
| 8 | Bellarmine | 0-1 | 0-0 | −24.2 | 79.6 | 103.8 | 343 |