Kentucky Wildcats

Women's · Southeastern Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs N Kentucky · Thu 5 Nov, 6:30 PM ET

N Kentucky0%100%Kentucky

Projected 88-48 · Game page

Makes the tournament88%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 5.1

Wins the national title<1%Final Four 4% · projected 24-8

Net rating+29.8Rank 17 of 363 · offence 21, defence 11

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 24-8 (19 to 28 wins)
Projected conference record: 10-6
Wins or shares the conference title: 4%
Wins the conference tournament: 3%
Average seed if in the field: 5.1
A 1 seed: 2%

Makes the field88%
Round of 3274%
Sweet 1638%
Elite Eight14%
Final Four4%
Title game1%
Champion<1%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Morehead Staterank 315	Home	100%	100-58	W 85-42	Right
Thu 5 Nov6:30 PM ET	vs Northern Kentuckyrank 243	Home	100%	88-48	—
Sun 8 Nov3 PM ET	vs NC Staterank 23	Neutral	54%	71-69	—
Wed 11 Nov6:30 PM ET	vs Evansvillerank 316	Home	100%	92-46	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 88% · the next 7 days

Sun 8 Nov: vs NC StateA win: 90% · a loss: 86%+5 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Ajsa SivkaG	1	27.0	12.0	3.0	8.0	+1.4	+1.7
Asia BooneG	1	24.0	2.0	3.0	1.0	+7.3	+4.2
Me'Arah O'NealF · transfer from Florida	1	23.0	10.0	7.0	2.0	+11.9	+5.9
Savvy SwordsF	1	23.0	6.0	11.0	1.0	+1.4	+1.5
Clara StrackC	1	22.0	17.0	9.0	3.0	+14.0	+6.5
Diana CollinsG · transfer from Alabama	1	22.0	12.0	2.0	0.0	+7.2	+3.8
Maddyn GreenwayG	1	22.0	12.0	3.0	4.0	+1.5	+1.4
Emily McDonaldG	1	18.0	10.0	2.0	1.0	+1.6	+1.2
Ayanna PattersonF · transfer from UConn	1	14.0	4.0	4.0	0.0	+9.5	+3.0
Jemma AmooreG · transfer from IU Indy	1	3.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−0.1	+0.1
Gabby BrooksG	1	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+5.8	+0.3

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	44.6%rank 239	43.7%rank 70	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	22.2%rank 23	23.9%rank 116	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	34.0%rank 110	31.6%rank 39	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	19.0%rank 310	18.9%rank 51	20.5%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −1.8 points a game (they shot 33.3%, league 28.4%)
Opponents' free throws: +2.1 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +27.7
Last season's net rating: +35.9
Last season's minutes returning: 31%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +7.8
Change since preseason: +2.1

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 107.6 (rank 21)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 77.8 (rank 11)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 72.9 (rank 214)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −18.6 (rank 236)

Southeastern Conference by rating

16 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	South Carolina	1-0	0-0	+45.0	120.1	75.1	2
2	LSU	1-0	0-0	+40.1	117.2	77.1	4
3	Vanderbilt	2-0	0-0	+36.8	115.5	78.6	6
4	Oklahoma	1-0	0-0	+35.5	111.5	75.9	9
5	Texas	1-0	0-0	+35.0	112.3	77.3	10
6	Kentucky	1-0	0-0	+29.8	107.6	77.8	17
7	Tennessee	1-0	0-0	+26.1	108.6	82.5	25
8	Ole Miss	1-0	0-0	+25.6	105.8	80.2	26
9	Alabama	2-0	0-0	+22.1	104.3	82.2	33
10	Mississippi State	1-0	0-0	+20.7	99.6	79.0	36
11	Georgia	1-0	0-0	+17.4	102.0	84.6	45
12	Auburn	1-0	0-0	+15.2	98.0	82.8	59
13	Florida	1-0	0-0	+13.6	102.1	88.5	65
14	Texas A&M	1-0	0-0	+9.8	96.7	86.9	78
15	Arkansas	1-0	0-0	+9.2	95.9	86.8	81
16	Missouri	1-0	0-0	+7.6	99.2	91.5	90