UT Martin Skyhawks
Next: vs Christian Brothers · Thu 5 Nov, 8 PM ET
Not rated: the opponent is outside Division I.
Makes the tournament4%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 15.2
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 16-17
Net rating−10.9Rank 237 of 363 · offence 177, defence 322
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 16-17 (11 to 22 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 8-8
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 3%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 4%
- Average seed if in the field
- 15.2
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field4%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | vs Eastern Kentuckyrank 182 | Home | 37% | 75-79 | W 90-89 | Wrong |
| Thu 5 Nov8 PM ET | vs Christian Brothersnot Division I | Home | — | — | — | |
| Sun 8 Nov3 PM ET | vs Mississippi Staterank 36 | Home | 5% | 57-79 | — | |
| Thu 12 Nov7:30 PM ET | at Missourirank 90 | Away | 6% | 63-84 | — |
Rooting guide
- Sun 8 Nov: vs Mississippi StateA win: 5% · a loss: 4%+1 pts
- Thu 12 Nov: at MissouriA win: 5% · a loss: 4%+1 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler JonesG · transfer from New Mexico | 1 | 29.0 | 13.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | −2.4 | −0.1 |
| Olivia SmithG | 1 | 28.0 | 10.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | −2.1 | 0.0 |
| Raven SimsG | 1 | 27.0 | 28.0 | 10.0 | 1.0 | −2.0 | +0.1 |
| Lily EspeletF | 1 | 18.0 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | −1.9 | +0.1 |
| Sidni MiddletonG | 1 | 17.0 | 10.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | −2.7 | −0.2 |
| Alorian StoryC | 1 | 15.0 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −1.8 | +0.1 |
| Mimi LazarevicG | 1 | 14.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | −1.8 | +0.1 |
| Maddie PenneyG | 1 | 14.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | −1.8 | +0.1 |
| Kennedy HortonF | 1 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | −4.0 | −0.4 |
| Sophie Chard PeloquinG | 1 | 11.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | −1.7 | +0.1 |
| Chloe Chard PeloquinF · transfer from Wright St | 1 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | −2.0 | 0.0 |
| Angela MirkovicF | 1 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.5 | +0.1 |
| Na'Kayjah HolmanG | 1 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.5 | +0.1 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 45.4%rank 81 | 46.5%rank 331 | 44.7% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin | 22.7%rank 50 | 22.3%rank 336 | 23.8% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin | 31.3%rank 337 | 33.8%rank 245 | 33.5% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin | 21.0%rank 96 | 23.9%rank 355 | 20.5% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 1.0 won, 0.4 expected (+0.6)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +1.2 points a game (they shot 26.3%, league 28.4%)
- Opponents' free throws
- +3.8 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- 1-0
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −12.5
- Last season's net rating
- −9.9
- Last season's minutes returning
- 19%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −0.2
- Change since preseason
- +1.7
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 89.0 (rank 177)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 99.9 (rank 322)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 72.8 (rank 225)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −3.5 (rank 152)
Ohio Valley Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Southern Indiana | 0-1 | 0-0 | +4.2 | 92.2 | 88.0 | 106 |
| 2 | Western Illinois | 1-0 | 0-0 | +1.5 | 93.8 | 92.3 | 126 |
| 3 | UT Martin | 1-0 | 0-0 | −10.9 | 89.0 | 99.9 | 237 |
| 4 | Lindenwood | 0-2 | 0-0 | −11.3 | 84.6 | 96.0 | 242 |
| 5 | SIU Edwardsville | 1-0 | 0-0 | −11.5 | 84.6 | 96.1 | 248 |
| 6 | Eastern Illinois | 0-1 | 0-0 | −16.6 | 80.7 | 97.4 | 299 |
| 7 | Tennessee State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −17.9 | 80.5 | 98.4 | 307 |
| 8 | Morehead State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −18.6 | 79.4 | 98.0 | 315 |
| 9 | Southeast Missouri State | 0-2 | 0-0 | −21.9 | 78.1 | 100.0 | 337 |