SIU Edwardsville Cougars

Women's · Ohio Valley Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: at IU Indy · Thu 5 Nov, 6:30 PM ET

SIUE25%75%IU Indy

Projected 61-71 · Game page

Makes the tournament5%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 15.0

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 17-16

Net rating−11.5Rank 249 of 363 · offence 245, defence 260

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 17-16 (11 to 23 wins)
Projected conference record: 8-8
Wins or shares the conference title: 4%
Wins the conference tournament: 5%
Average seed if in the field: 15.0
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field5%
Round of 32<1%
Sweet 160%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result
Tue 3 Nov	vs Judsonnot Division I	Home	—	—	W 95-48
Thu 5 Nov6:30 PM ET	at IU Indianapolisrank 192	Away	25%	61-71	Live
Sun 8 Nov2 PM ET	vs Milwaukeerank 264	Home	66%	67-61	—
Thu 12 Nov12 PM ET	vs Central Methodistnot Division I	Home	—	—	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 5% · the next 7 days

Thu 5 Nov: at IU IndianapolisA win: 5% · a loss: 5%−1 pts
Sun 8 Nov: vs MilwaukeeA win: 5% · a loss: 5%+1 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Ava GugliuzzaG	1	26.0	7.0	4.0	5.0	−2.9	−0.3
Adriana BlazquezF	1	22.0	2.0	3.0	4.0	−4.0	−0.7
Giselle DoganG	1	22.0	8.0	2.0	4.0	−2.2	0.0
Kiyoko ProctorG	1	22.0	17.0	2.0	6.0	+0.1	+0.9
Riley AbneyG	1	18.0	8.0	2.0	2.0	−2.1	0.0
Rory ConboyF	1	18.0	6.0	5.0	2.0	−4.0	−0.6
Tyra RobinsonF · transfer from Missouri St	1	15.0	24.0	3.0	1.0	−1.5	+0.2
Jayla McClintonF	1	13.0	8.0	5.0	0.0	−2.0	0.0
Kaitlin CassidyF	1	11.0	3.0	9.0	0.0	−2.0	0.0
Pryelle Kesse-BedaF	1	7.0	0.0	1.0	1.0	−1.9	0.0
Alex NicastroF	1	5.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	−1.8	0.0

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	44.6%rank 140	44.6%rank 133	44.6%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	23.9%rank 150	23.9%rank 128	23.9%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	33.5%rank 140	33.5%rank 136	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	20.4%rank 137	20.4%rank 144	20.4%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −11.5
Last season's net rating: −9.2
Last season's minutes returning: 50%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: 0.0
Change since preseason: 0.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 84.5 (rank 245)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 96.0 (rank 260)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 71.6 (rank 316)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: —

Ohio Valley Conference by rating

9 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Southern Indiana	0-1	0-0	+4.1	92.1	88.0	106
2	Western Illinois	1-0	0-0	+1.5	93.7	92.2	126
3	UT Martin	1-0	0-0	−10.9	88.9	99.9	238
4	Lindenwood	0-2	0-0	−11.2	84.6	95.8	243
5	SIU Edwardsville	1-0	0-0	−11.5	84.5	96.0	249
6	Eastern Illinois	0-1	0-0	−16.6	80.7	97.3	298
7	Tennessee State	1-0	0-0	−17.9	80.5	98.4	307
8	Morehead State	0-1	0-0	−18.5	79.3	97.9	315
9	Southeast Missouri State	0-2	0-0	−21.8	78.1	99.9	337