Western Illinois Leathernecks

Women's · Ohio Valley Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: at Nebraska · Sat 7 Nov, 3 PM ET

W Illinois5%95%Nebraska

Projected 58-82 · Game page

Makes the tournament38%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 14.1

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 25-8

Net rating+1.5Rank 128 of 363 · offence 105, defence 169

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 25-8 (20 to 29 wins)
Projected conference record: 13-3
Wins or shares the conference title: 48%
Wins the conference tournament: 37%
Average seed if in the field: 14.1
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field38%
Round of 321%
Sweet 16<1%
Elite Eight<1%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result
Tue 3 Nov	vs Clarkenot Division I	Home	—	—	W 85-55
Sat 7 Nov3 PM ET	at Nebraskarank 29	Away	5%	58-82	—
Mon 9 Nov7:30 PM ET	at Omaharank 319	Away	82%	72-59	—
Wed 11 Nov7 PM ET	vs Cornell (IA)not Division I	Home	—	—	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 38% · the next 7 days

Sat 7 Nov: at NebraskaA win: 43% · a loss: 38%+5 pts
Mon 9 Nov: at OmahaA win: 39% · a loss: 37%+1 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Kaylen ReedG	1	33.0	16.0	8.0	9.0	−1.0	+0.7
Madison DavisG	1	29.0	12.0	7.0	2.0	+1.6	+2.0
Mia NicastroF	1	28.0	10.0	9.0	2.0	+7.4	+4.9
Maria MesslingF	1	28.0	12.0	7.0	3.0	−1.9	+0.1
Shelby BowmanG	1	25.0	14.0	3.0	0.0	−0.6	+0.7
Mylee StiefelG	1	22.0	11.0	2.0	3.0	−1.7	+0.2
Sidney SkrobotF	1	14.0	8.0	3.0	1.0	−2.3	0.0
Kennedy HerrigG	1	10.0	2.0	2.0	0.0	−0.7	+0.3
Ainsley HolthausG	1	5.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	−1.6	+0.1
Jaelyn JonesG	1	4.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	−1.3	+0.1
Mya RobinsonG	1	2.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	−1.2	0.0

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	44.7%rank 148	44.7%rank 141	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	23.9%rank 167	23.9%rank 138	23.9%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	33.3%rank 147	33.3%rank 147	33.3%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	20.8%rank 147	20.8%rank 154	20.8%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +1.5
Last season's net rating: +9.6
Last season's minutes returning: 49%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: 0.0
Change since preseason: 0.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 93.8 (rank 105)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 92.3 (rank 169)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 73.0 (rank 179)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: —

Ohio Valley Conference by rating

9 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Southern Indiana	0-2	0-0	+3.3	90.4	87.1	109
2	Western Illinois	1-0	0-0	+1.5	93.8	92.3	128
3	SIU Edwardsville	1-1	0-0	−10.6	86.2	96.7	237
4	UT Martin	1-0	0-0	−10.8	89.1	99.9	238
5	Lindenwood	0-2	0-0	−11.4	84.6	96.0	244
6	Eastern Illinois	0-2	0-0	−17.1	79.7	96.8	305
7	Morehead State	0-1	0-0	−18.1	80.3	98.3	312
8	Tennessee State	1-1	0-0	−20.6	79.1	99.7	331
9	Southeast Missouri State	0-2	0-0	−21.8	78.2	100.0	337