Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
Makes the tournament<1%From 20,000 simulated seasons
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 8-25
Net rating−21.9Rank 336 of 363 · offence 332, defence 325
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 8-25 (4 to 13 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 4-12
- Wins or shares the conference title
- <1%
- Wins the conference tournament
- <1%
- Average seed if in the field
- —
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field<1%
- Round of 320%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | at Missouri Staterank 72 | Away | 4% | 66-91 | L 40-77 | Right |
| Thu 5 Nov | vs Miami (OH)rank 81 | Home | 6% | 52-73 | L 52-75 | Right |
| Tue 10 Nov7 PM ET | at Purduerank 97 | Away | 2% | 54-82 | — |
Rooting guide
- Tue 10 Nov: at PurdueA win: <1% · a loss: <1%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zoe NewlandG | 2 | 26.0 | 15.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | −4.1 | −0.9 |
| Jolie BondererG | 2 | 24.0 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 1.5 | −4.1 | −0.8 |
| Hailey BuckmanG | 2 | 23.5 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | −4.2 | −0.9 |
| Carrington JonesG | 2 | 23.0 | 8.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | −4.1 | −0.8 |
| Dacarra WardF | 2 | 21.5 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 0.5 | −4.0 | −0.7 |
| Madison AyersG | 2 | 21.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | −5.2 | −1.2 |
| Yar ManyielF · transfer from La Salle | 2 | 20.0 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | −4.8 | −1.0 |
| Karris AllenG · transfer from S Illinois | 2 | 19.5 | 2.5 | 5.0 | 0.0 | −5.6 | −1.2 |
| Faye WilliamsF | 2 | 18.0 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 0.0 | −3.9 | −0.6 |
| Courtenay LeeF · transfer from GA Southern | 1 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −2.2 | 0.0 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 42.6%rank 346 | 48.4%rank 362 | 44.7% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin | 24.6%rank 305 | 24.2%rank 93 | 23.8% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin | 31.0%rank 345 | 34.1%rank 263 | 33.5% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin | 19.5%rank 279 | 20.5%rank 238 | 20.5% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.1 expected (−0.1)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- −4.8 points a game (they shot 36.8%, league 28.5%)
- Opponents' free throws
- −2.5 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −16.8
- Last season's net rating
- −8.8
- Last season's minutes returning
- 6%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −0.9
- Change since preseason
- −5.1
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 78.2 (rank 332)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 100.1 (rank 325)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 73.5 (rank 142)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- +10.0 (rank 75)
Ohio Valley Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Southern Indiana | 0-1 | 0-0 | +4.1 | 92.2 | 88.1 | 106 |
| 2 | Western Illinois | 1-0 | 0-0 | +1.5 | 93.8 | 92.4 | 126 |
| 3 | UT Martin | 1-0 | 0-0 | −10.9 | 89.1 | 100.0 | 237 |
| 4 | Lindenwood | 0-2 | 0-0 | −11.3 | 84.7 | 96.0 | 242 |
| 5 | SIU Edwardsville | 1-0 | 0-0 | −11.5 | 84.7 | 96.2 | 248 |
| 6 | Eastern Illinois | 0-1 | 0-0 | −16.6 | 80.8 | 97.4 | 299 |
| 7 | Tennessee State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −17.9 | 80.6 | 98.5 | 307 |
| 8 | Morehead State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −18.6 | 79.5 | 98.0 | 315 |
| 9 | Southeast Missouri State | 0-2 | 0-0 | −21.9 | 78.2 | 100.1 | 336 |