Tennessee State Lady Tigers

Women's · Ohio Valley Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: at William & Mary · Thu 5 Nov, 7 PM ET

Tennessee St14%86%William & Mary

Projected 58-73 · Game page

Makes the tournament1%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 15.4

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 10-21

Net rating−17.9Rank 307 of 363 · offence 299, defence 301

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 10-21 (4 to 15 wins)
Projected conference record: 5-11
Wins or shares the conference title: 1%
Wins the conference tournament: 1%
Average seed if in the field: 15.4
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field1%
Round of 320%
Sweet 160%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result
Mon 2 Nov	vs Toccoa Fallsnot Division I	Home	—	—	W 95-46
Thu 5 Nov7 PM ET	at William & Maryrank 199	Away	14%	58-73	Live
Sun 8 Nov2 PM ET	at Old Dominionrank 179	Away	9%	57-76	—

Rooting guide

Chance of the conference title now: 1% · the next 7 days

Thu 5 Nov: at William & MaryA win: <1% · a loss: 1%0 pts
Sun 8 Nov: at Old DominionA win: 1% · a loss: 1%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Sherry ZhengPG	1	27.0	5.0	6.0	6.0	−2.6	−0.2
Genesis HarrisG	1	25.0	17.0	6.0	3.0	−6.5	−2.0
Addison MeltonG · transfer from Lipscomb	1	23.0	7.0	5.0	4.0	−4.4	−1.0
Somah KamaraG	1	20.0	24.0	3.0	2.0	−4.1	−0.7
LaKiara AlexanderF	1	19.0	12.0	11.0	1.0	−2.4	−0.1
Nandinkhusel NyamjavG	1	17.0	9.0	7.0	3.0	−2.3	−0.1
Adrienne HuntG	1	13.0	11.0	7.0	0.0	−2.2	0.0
Icesis ThomasG	1	11.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	−6.1	−0.8
Raegan StarksF	1	11.0	0.0	1.0	1.0	−2.2	0.0
Akeera SparksPF	1	9.0	4.0	1.0	0.0	−2.1	0.0
Serenity ByrdPF	1	9.0	3.0	1.0	0.0	−2.1	0.0

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	44.6%rank 143	44.6%rank 134	44.6%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	23.9%rank 154	23.9%rank 129	23.9%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	33.4%rank 141	33.4%rank 137	33.4%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	20.4%rank 139	20.4%rank 146	20.4%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −17.9
Last season's net rating: −21.5
Last season's minutes returning: 43%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −0.3
Change since preseason: 0.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 80.3 (rank 299)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 98.2 (rank 301)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 75.1 (rank 32)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: —

Ohio Valley Conference by rating

9 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Southern Indiana	0-1	0-0	+4.1	92.0	87.8	106
2	Western Illinois	1-0	0-0	+1.5	93.5	92.1	126
3	SIU Edwardsville	1-1	0-0	−10.2	86.1	96.3	234
4	UT Martin	1-0	0-0	−10.9	88.8	99.8	239
5	Lindenwood	0-2	0-0	−11.2	84.5	95.7	244
6	Eastern Illinois	0-1	0-0	−16.6	80.6	97.2	298
7	Tennessee State	1-0	0-0	−17.9	80.3	98.2	307
8	Morehead State	0-1	0-0	−18.0	80.1	98.1	310
9	Southeast Missouri State	0-2	0-0	−21.8	78.0	99.8	337