Furman Paladins
Next: vs Southern Wesleyan · Fri 6 Nov, 11 AM ET
Not rated: the opponent is outside Division I.
Makes the tournament11%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 15.6
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 18-14
Net rating−10.4Rank 234 of 363 · offence 230, defence 259
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 18-14 (12 to 25 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 9-7
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 11%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 10%
- Average seed if in the field
- 15.6
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field11%
- Round of 320%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | at South Floridarank 75 | Away | 9% | 71-90 | L 54-80 | Right |
| Wed 4 Nov | vs Erskinenot Division I | Home | — | — | W 106-48 | |
| Fri 6 Nov11 AM ET | vs Southern Wesleyannot Division I | Home | — | — | — | |
| Tue 10 Nov12 PM ET | at Auburnrank 61 | Away | 2% | 52-78 | — |
Rooting guide
- Tue 10 Nov: at AuburnA win: 13% · a loss: 11%+2 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clare CoyleF | 2 | 26.5 | 19.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | +1.4 | +1.7 |
| Alyssa ErvinG | 2 | 25.5 | 15.0 | 3.5 | 2.5 | −0.9 | +0.6 |
| Sophia PearlG | 2 | 24.0 | 7.5 | 1.0 | 3.0 | −3.9 | −0.8 |
| Raina McGowensG | 2 | 23.0 | 10.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | −3.2 | −0.4 |
| Nariah NelsonG | 2 | 21.0 | 8.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | −2.8 | −0.3 |
| Ciara AlexanderG · transfer from Campbell | 2 | 17.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −0.8 | +0.4 |
| Ava SawiG · transfer from Radford | 2 | 17.0 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 0.0 | −3.6 | −0.5 |
| Tyriana BerryF | 2 | 13.5 | 4.5 | 6.0 | 0.0 | −3.1 | −0.2 |
| Emma BriggsF | 2 | 11.5 | 6.5 | 5.0 | 0.5 | −2.4 | −0.1 |
| Asa SnyderG | 2 | 8.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | −2.3 | 0.0 |
| Hilary EnglertG | 2 | 6.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | −3.7 | −0.2 |
| Kyraha ParnellF | 1 | 11.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −2.7 | −0.1 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 44.1%rank 267 | 46.1%rank 314 | 44.7% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin | 23.5%rank 112 | 25.4%rank 30 | 23.8% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin | 34.1%rank 98 | 37.1%rank 360 | 33.5% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin | 21.7%rank 54 | 19.2%rank 72 | 20.5% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.1 expected (−0.1)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- −1.8 points a game (they shot 31.6%, league 28.5%)
- Opponents' free throws
- −0.5 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −8.0
- Last season's net rating
- −9.5
- Last season's minutes returning
- 76%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −0.6
- Change since preseason
- −2.4
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 85.8 (rank 230)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 96.2 (rank 259)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 73.7 (rank 123)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- +10.5 (rank 73)
Southern Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | East Tennessee State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −1.6 | 89.3 | 90.9 | 155 |
| 2 | Wofford | 0-1 | 0-0 | −5.6 | 87.7 | 93.3 | 194 |
| 3 | Furman | 1-1 | 0-0 | −10.4 | 85.8 | 96.2 | 234 |
| 4 | Chattanooga | 1-1 | 0-0 | −11.2 | 84.6 | 95.8 | 241 |
| 5 | Samford | 1-0 | 0-0 | −13.3 | 85.1 | 98.4 | 272 |
| 6 | Tennessee Tech | 0-1 | 0-0 | −13.8 | 86.8 | 100.6 | 276 |
| 7 | UNC Greensboro | 1-0 | 0-0 | −15.7 | 80.5 | 96.2 | 293 |
| 8 | Mercer | 1-0 | 0-0 | −17.9 | 80.4 | 98.3 | 307 |
| 9 | Western Carolina | 1-0 | 0-0 | −21.8 | 78.8 | 100.5 | 335 |