Penn State Lady Lions

Women's · Big Ten Conference · 0-1, 0-0 in conference · last L1

Next: at Cincinnati · Sat 7 Nov, 2 PM ET

Penn State27%73%Cincinnati

Projected 67-75 · Game page

Makes the tournament<1%From 20,000 simulated seasons

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 5-24

Net rating+1.3Rank 129 of 363 · offence 117, defence 154

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 5-24 (2 to 9 wins)
Projected conference record: 2-16
Wins or shares the conference title: 0%
Wins the conference tournament: 0%
Average seed if in the field: —
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field<1%
Round of 32<1%
Sweet 160%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Cleveland Staterank 157	Home	82%	89-76	L 61-62	Wrong
Sat 7 Nov2 PM ET	at Cincinnatirank 96	Away	27%	67-75	—
Mon 9 Nov7 PM ET	at Daytonrank 153	Away	43%	70-72	—

Rooting guide

Chance of the conference title now: 0% · the next 7 days

Sat 7 Nov: at CincinnatiA win: 0% · a loss: 0%0 pts
Mon 9 Nov: at DaytonA win: 0% · a loss: 0%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Ava BlackG · transfer from Vanderbilt	1	39.0	17.0	10.0	5.0	+1.7	+2.9
Petra BožanF · transfer from Nebraska	1	32.0	8.0	6.0	0.0	+2.0	+2.5
Savannah WhiteF · transfer from Xavier	1	27.0	3.0	8.0	1.0	−0.9	+0.7
Enjulina GonzalezG · transfer from Georgia	1	26.0	6.0	6.0	3.0	+0.4	+1.3
Devyn QuigleyG · transfer from NC State	1	23.0	12.0	0.0	0.0	+0.6	+1.2
Cristen CarterF · transfer from Georgetown	1	21.0	4.0	8.0	1.0	+0.6	+1.1
Skylar DurleyG · transfer from Nevada	1	21.0	10.0	3.0	2.0	−2.5	−0.1
Kamrah BanksG	1	11.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	−3.8	−0.3

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	42.5%rank 342	44.6%rank 138	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	23.2%rank 91	23.1%rank 287	23.9%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	33.1%rank 223	33.2%rank 143	33.3%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	20.6%rank 220	21.5%rank 265	20.8%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 0.0 won, 0.8 expected (−0.8)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +0.8 points a game (they shot 27.6%, league 28.6%)
Opponents' free throws: −0.4 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: 0-1

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +3.5
Last season's net rating: +8.5
Last season's minutes returning: 6%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +7.6
Change since preseason: −2.2

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 93.0 (rank 117)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 91.6 (rank 154)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 75.0 (rank 39)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −1.7 (rank 149)

Big Ten Conference by rating

18 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Michigan	1-0	0-0	+45.3	116.7	71.3	2
2	Ohio State	2-0	0-0	+41.0	110.7	69.6	4
3	Minnesota	1-0	0-0	+36.0	114.3	78.2	6
4	UCLA	1-0	0-0	+34.4	110.0	75.6	11
5	Illinois	1-0	0-0	+33.4	112.2	78.8	13
6	Iowa	2-0	0-0	+32.5	109.3	76.8	14
7	USC	1-0	0-0	+31.5	109.5	78.0	16
8	Oregon	1-0	0-0	+29.4	107.3	77.9	18
9	Maryland	0-1	0-0	+28.8	112.1	83.3	21
10	Washington	1-0	0-0	+26.7	105.6	78.9	24
11	Michigan State	1-0	0-0	+23.9	104.3	80.4	28
12	Nebraska	1-0	0-0	+23.4	105.1	81.8	29
13	Indiana	1-0	0-0	+18.4	102.1	83.7	42
14	Wisconsin	2-0	0-0	+15.3	103.3	88.0	60
15	Rutgers	2-0	0-0	+9.2	96.2	87.0	82
16	Northwestern	1-0	0-0	+4.0	94.6	90.5	103
17	Purdue	2-0	0-0	+1.8	96.0	94.2	124
18	Penn State	0-1	0-0	+1.3	93.0	91.6	129