Dayton Flyers
Next: vs Illinois St · Thu 5 Nov, 7 PM ETProjected 72-69 · Game page
Makes the tournament4%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 11.8
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 16-14
Net rating−0.6Rank 145 of 363 · offence 136, defence 168
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 16-14 (9 to 23 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 9-9
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 2%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 2%
- Average seed if in the field
- 11.8
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field4%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 16<1%
- Elite Eight<1%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 5 Nov7 PM ET | vs Illinois Staterank 128 | Home | 59% | 72-69 | Live | |
| Mon 9 Nov7 PM ET | vs Penn Staterank 131 | Home | 61% | 72-68 | — |
Rooting guide
- Thu 5 Nov: vs Illinois StateA win: 4% · a loss: 4%0 pts
- Mon 9 Nov: vs Penn StateA win: 4% · a loss: 4%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 44.7%rank 137 | 44.7%rank 132 | 44.7% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin | 23.8%rank 144 | 23.8%rank 126 | 23.8% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin | 33.5%rank 137 | 33.5%rank 133 | 33.5% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin | 20.5%rank 127 | 20.5%rank 139 | 20.5% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −0.6
- Last season's net rating
- −0.2
- Last season's minutes returning
- 57%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −0.3
- Change since preseason
- 0.0
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 91.7 (rank 136)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 92.3 (rank 168)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 73.6 (rank 133)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- —
Atlantic 10 Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saint Joseph's | 0-0 | 0-0 | +15.2 | 100.6 | 85.3 | 60 |
| 2 | Richmond | 1-0 | 0-0 | +13.8 | 102.0 | 88.2 | 64 |
| 3 | Davidson | 0-1 | 0-0 | +13.3 | 99.0 | 85.7 | 66 |
| 4 | Rhode Island | 0-1 | 0-0 | +9.7 | 96.2 | 86.6 | 79 |
| 5 | George Mason | 1-0 | 0-0 | +8.4 | 97.0 | 88.5 | 86 |
| 6 | George Washington | 1-0 | 0-0 | +0.6 | 91.7 | 91.1 | 135 |
| 7 | Dayton | 0-0 | 0-0 | −0.6 | 91.7 | 92.3 | 145 |
| 8 | VCU | 1-0 | 0-0 | −2.2 | 86.8 | 89.0 | 166 |
| 9 | La Salle | 0-1 | 0-0 | −2.7 | 89.1 | 91.8 | 168 |
| 10 | Fordham | 2-0 | 0-0 | −3.0 | 86.4 | 89.4 | 174 |
| 11 | Saint Louis | 0-1 | 0-0 | −6.2 | 89.4 | 95.7 | 199 |
| 12 | St. Bonaventure | 1-0 | 0-0 | −7.2 | 86.8 | 94.0 | 206 |
| 13 | Duquesne | 0-1 | 0-0 | −8.7 | 87.2 | 95.8 | 218 |
| 14 | Loyola Chicago | 1-0 | 0-0 | −10.5 | 86.3 | 96.7 | 235 |