Saint Louis Billikens
Makes the tournament<1%From 20,000 simulated seasons
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 12-21
Net rating−6.2Rank 199 of 363 · offence 170, defence 245
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 12-21 (6 to 17 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 5-13
- Wins or shares the conference title
- <1%
- Wins the conference tournament
- <1%
- Average seed if in the field
- —
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field<1%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | at Middle Tennesseerank 113 | Away | 27% | 72-81 | L 84-91 | Right |
| Thu 5 Nov8 PM ET | vs Milwaukeerank 264 | Home | 78% | 73-63 | — | |
| Wed 11 Nov5 PM ET | vs Eastern Illinoisrank 299 | Home | 85% | 74-60 | — |
Rooting guide
- Thu 5 Nov: vs MilwaukeeA win: <1% · a loss: <1%0 pts
- Wed 11 Nov: vs Eastern IllinoisA win: <1% · a loss: <1%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyonna BaileyG · transfer from Charleston So | 1 | 39.0 | 26.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | −1.1 | +0.8 |
| Mia BergstromG | 1 | 37.0 | 19.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | −3.2 | −0.7 |
| Jahda DenisG | 1 | 31.0 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | −1.2 | +0.6 |
| Jameela JamesC | 1 | 27.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | −2.2 | 0.0 |
| D'Myjah BoldsF · transfer from W Michigan | 1 | 24.0 | 15.0 | 7.0 | 2.0 | −0.2 | +0.9 |
| Alyssa KoerkenmeierC | 1 | 20.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +3.2 | +2.0 |
| Peyton OlufsonG | 1 | 20.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | −2.0 | +0.1 |
| Evelyn ShaneF | 1 | 10.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −1.8 | +0.1 |
| Gabby SpinkG · transfer from Murray St | 1 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | −2.1 | 0.0 |
| Jasaiyah WallaceF | 1 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | −1.0 | +0.2 |
| Jada TiggettF | 1 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.2 | 0.0 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 48.1%rank 4 | 42.4%rank 16 | 44.7% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin | 24.8%rank 308 | 23.5%rank 243 | 23.8% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin | 31.4%rank 332 | 34.3%rank 270 | 33.5% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin | 23.4%rank 19 | 25.2%rank 363 | 20.5% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.3 expected (−0.3)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +10.6 points a game (they shot 18.9%, league 28.4%)
- Opponents' free throws
- −4.8 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- 0-1
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −4.2
- Last season's net rating
- −5.8
- Last season's minutes returning
- 46%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −4.7
- Change since preseason
- −2.0
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 89.3 (rank 170)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 95.6 (rank 245)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 74.7 (rank 53)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- +2.8 (rank 100)
Atlantic 10 Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saint Joseph's | 0-0 | 0-0 | +15.2 | 100.5 | 85.3 | 59 |
| 2 | Richmond | 1-0 | 0-0 | +13.8 | 101.9 | 88.1 | 63 |
| 3 | Davidson | 0-1 | 0-0 | +13.3 | 99.0 | 85.7 | 66 |
| 4 | Rhode Island | 0-1 | 0-0 | +9.6 | 96.1 | 86.5 | 79 |
| 5 | George Mason | 1-0 | 0-0 | +8.4 | 96.9 | 88.5 | 86 |
| 6 | George Washington | 1-0 | 0-0 | +0.6 | 91.6 | 91.0 | 136 |
| 7 | Dayton | 0-0 | 0-0 | −0.6 | 91.6 | 92.2 | 146 |
| 8 | VCU | 1-0 | 0-0 | −2.2 | 86.7 | 88.9 | 166 |
| 9 | La Salle | 0-1 | 0-0 | −2.7 | 89.0 | 91.8 | 168 |
| 10 | Fordham | 1-0 | 0-0 | −3.0 | 86.3 | 89.3 | 174 |
| 11 | Saint Louis | 0-1 | 0-0 | −6.2 | 89.3 | 95.6 | 199 |
| 12 | St. Bonaventure | 1-0 | 0-0 | −7.2 | 86.7 | 93.9 | 206 |
| 13 | Duquesne | 0-1 | 0-0 | −8.7 | 87.1 | 95.8 | 219 |
| 14 | Loyola Chicago | 1-0 | 0-0 | −10.4 | 86.2 | 96.7 | 235 |