Harvard Crimson
Next: vs Boston College · Thu 5 Nov, 7 PM ETProjected 78-56 · Game page
Makes the tournament37%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 10.1
Wins the national title0%Final Four <1% · projected 21-9
Net rating+15.3Rank 58 of 363 · offence 67, defence 49
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 21-9 (16 to 26 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 10-4
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 26%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 21%
- Average seed if in the field
- 10.1
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field37%
- Round of 3212%
- Sweet 161%
- Elite Eight<1%
- Final Four<1%
- Title game<1%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | at Minnesotarank 6 | Away | 9% | 69-87 | L 62-82 | Right |
| Thu 5 Nov7 PM ET | vs Boston Collegerank 190 | Home | 95% | 78-56 | Live | |
| Mon 9 Nov6 PM ET | at Holy Crossrank 178 | Away | 78% | 66-56 | — | |
| Wed 11 Nov7 PM ET | vs Massachusettsrank 138 | Home | 90% | 74-57 | — |
Rooting guide
- Thu 5 Nov: vs Boston CollegeA win: 37% · a loss: 38%−1 pts
- Mon 9 Nov: at Holy CrossA win: 37% · a loss: 36%+1 pts
- Wed 11 Nov: vs MassachusettsA win: 37% · a loss: 35%+2 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karlee WhiteG | 1 | 36.0 | 11.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | +6.6 | +5.7 |
| Lydia ChatiraG | 1 | 33.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | −0.5 | +1.0 |
| Abigail WrightF | 1 | 24.0 | 8.0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | +5.1 | +3.1 |
| Olivia JonesG | 1 | 20.0 | 14.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | +4.5 | +2.4 |
| Sam WillsF | 1 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 | +1.1 |
| Mary HollensteinerG | 1 | 19.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | +3.1 | +1.8 |
| Asani CeaserF | 1 | 17.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.7 | +1.5 |
| Alayna RoccoG | 1 | 12.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +1.9 | +0.9 |
| Maya NaharC | 1 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +1.8 | +0.5 |
| Aubrey ShawG | 1 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +2.2 | +0.5 |
| Ava KrumwiedeF | 1 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +1.6 | +0.3 |
| Sierra WoolhouseG | 1 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −1.2 | 0.0 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 44.5%rank 227 | 44.3%rank 122 | 44.6% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin | 23.6%rank 116 | 24.1%rank 112 | 23.9% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin | 35.8%rank 20 | 34.8%rank 305 | 33.4% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin | 18.6%rank 330 | 23.4%rank 343 | 20.4% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.1 expected (−0.1)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +4.6 points a game (they shot 18.8%, league 28.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- −6.0 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- +16.9
- Last season's net rating
- +17.7
- Last season's minutes returning
- 68%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- 0.0
- Change since preseason
- −1.6
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 98.8 (rank 67)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 83.5 (rank 49)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 72.2 (rank 274)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- +35.8 (rank 5)