Brown Bears
Makes the tournament1%From 20,000 simulated seasons
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 13-17
Net rating−4.3Rank 185 of 363 · offence 184, defence 177
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 13-17 (8 to 18 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 5-9
- Wins or shares the conference title
- <1%
- Wins the conference tournament
- <1%
- Average seed if in the field
- —
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field1%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | at Sienarank 226 | Away | 70% | 82-74 | L 71-82 | Wrong |
| Thu 5 Nov7 PM ET | vs Armyrank 105 | Home | 44% | 64-66 | Live | |
| Sat 7 Nov3 PM ET | vs Bucknellrank 262 | Home | 80% | 69-58 | — | |
| Thu 12 Nov4:30 PM ET | vs Holy Crossrank 141 | Home | 53% | 63-62 | — |
Rooting guide
- Thu 5 Nov: vs ArmyA win: <1% · a loss: <1%0 pts
- Sat 7 Nov: vs BucknellA win: <1% · a loss: <1%0 pts
- Thu 12 Nov: vs Holy CrossA win: <1% · a loss: <1%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gia PowellG | 1 | 32.0 | 25.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | −1.8 | +0.2 |
| Olivia YoungG | 1 | 31.0 | 9.0 | 15.0 | 0.0 | +0.8 | +1.7 |
| Sravya JanapatiG | 1 | 22.0 | 11.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | −1.6 | +0.2 |
| Nalah SmithF | 1 | 22.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 1.0 | −1.6 | +0.2 |
| Isabella WesleyG | 1 | 21.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | −0.8 | +0.5 |
| Aima OfunreinF | 1 | 19.0 | 15.0 | 7.0 | 1.0 | −0.5 | +0.6 |
| Charlotte Adams-LopezG | 1 | 19.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | −0.7 | +0.5 |
| Caitlyn KramerG | 1 | 18.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 6.0 | −1.5 | +0.2 |
| Monét WitherspoonG | 1 | 16.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | −0.4 | +0.5 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 45.6%rank 69 | 44.2%rank 107 | 44.7% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin | 24.4%rank 285 | 23.9%rank 115 | 23.8% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin | 36.3%rank 12 | 34.3%rank 273 | 33.5% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin | 18.8%rank 325 | 19.6%rank 96 | 20.5% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.7 expected (−0.7)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- −4.3 points a game (they shot 33.3%, league 28.5%)
- Opponents' free throws
- −0.4 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- +0.1
- Last season's net rating
- +4.5
- Last season's minutes returning
- 45%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- 0.0
- Change since preseason
- −4.4
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 88.5 (rank 184)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 92.7 (rank 177)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 73.0 (rank 196)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −9.4 (rank 181)