Southern Illinois Salukis

Women's · Missouri Valley Conference · 0-1, 0-0 in conference · last L1

Next: at Indiana · Fri 6 Nov, 7 PM ET

S Illinois1%99%Indiana

Projected 52-86 · Game page

Makes the tournament<1%From 20,000 simulated seasons

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 10-24

Net rating−15.3Rank 289 of 363 · offence 277, defence 302

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 10-24 (4 to 17 wins)
Projected conference record: 6-14
Wins or shares the conference title: <1%
Wins the conference tournament: <1%
Average seed if in the field: —
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field<1%
Round of 320%
Sweet 160%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result
Tue 3 Nov	vs Illinois Springfieldnot Division I	Home	—	—	L 70-75
Fri 6 Nov7 PM ET	at Indianarank 41	Away	1%	52-86	—
Thu 12 Nov6 PM ET	at Eastern Kentuckyrank 182	Away	13%	63-79	—

Rooting guide

Chance of the conference title now: <1% · the next 7 days

Fri 6 Nov: at IndianaA win: <1% · a loss: <1%0 pts
Thu 12 Nov: at Eastern KentuckyA win: <1% · a loss: <1%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Kayla CooperG	1	37.0	9.0	11.0	6.0	−3.3	−0.8
Tkiyah NelsonG	1	30.0	2.0	6.0	2.0	−4.1	−1.1
Braxcynn BakerG · transfer from Murray St	1	29.0	9.0	5.0	1.0	−0.9	+0.7
Kynnedi DavisG	1	23.0	14.0	1.0	0.0	−5.1	−1.3
Carmen MoralesC	1	19.0	2.0	5.0	0.0	−4.5	−0.8
Shakara McClineG · transfer from DePaul	1	18.0	13.0	3.0	1.0	−1.4	+0.2
Yaiza Paredes DiazF	1	17.0	5.0	1.0	0.0	−2.1	0.0
Haeli TartG	1	13.0	8.0	0.0	1.0	−1.9	+0.1
Mia GainesC	1	8.0	5.0	0.0	0.0	−4.8	−0.4
Raeven BoswellF	1	5.0	1.0	1.0	0.0	−1.7	0.0
Chellise JonesF	1	1.0	2.0	2.0	0.0	−1.6	0.0

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	44.7%rank 137	44.7%rank 132	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	23.8%rank 144	23.8%rank 126	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	33.5%rank 137	33.5%rank 133	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	20.5%rank 127	20.5%rank 139	20.5%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: 0-1

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −15.3
Last season's net rating: −14.8
Last season's minutes returning: 46%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +0.6
Change since preseason: 0.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 83.2 (rank 277)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 98.5 (rank 302)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 74.2 (rank 84)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: —

Missouri Valley Conference by rating

11 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Murray State	1-0	0-0	+10.6	100.9	90.2	73
2	Northern Iowa	1-0	0-0	+3.1	93.5	90.3	111
3	Drake	1-0	0-0	+2.4	95.9	93.5	117
4	Belmont	0-1	0-0	+1.7	92.4	90.7	123
5	Illinois State	1-0	0-0	+1.4	96.0	94.7	128
6	Bradley	0-1	0-0	−2.1	89.9	92.0	165
7	UIC	1-1	0-0	−4.3	89.0	93.3	185
8	Southern Illinois	0-1	0-0	−15.3	83.2	98.5	289
9	Indiana State	0-1	0-0	−15.4	84.6	100.0	290
10	Evansville	0-1	0-0	−18.8	83.3	102.1	316
11	Valparaiso	0-1	0-0	−24.7	74.7	99.4	345