Utah State Aggies

Women's · Pac-12 Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs LMU · Fri 6 Nov, 4 PM ET

LMU81%19%Utah State

Projected 62-74 · Game page

Makes the tournament<1%From 20,000 simulated seasons

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 8-24

Net rating−14.5Rank 283 of 363 · offence 279, defence 288

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 8-24 (3 to 13 wins)
Projected conference record: 2-14
Wins or shares the conference title: 0%
Wins the conference tournament: <1%
Average seed if in the field: —
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field<1%
Round of 320%
Sweet 160%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result
Mon 2 Nov	vs Westminster (UT)not Division I	Home	—	—	W 61-45
Fri 6 Nov4 PM ET	vs Loyola Marymountrank 98	Home	19%	62-74	—
Sun 8 Nov8 PM ET	at USCrank 15	Away	0%	46-92	—
Wed 11 Nov6 PM ET	vs Idaho Staterank 197	Home	44%	63-65	—

Rooting guide

Chance of the conference title now: 0% · the next 7 days

Fri 6 Nov: vs Loyola MarymountA win: <1% · a loss: 0%0 pts
Wed 11 Nov: vs Idaho StateA win: <1% · a loss: 0%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Aitana Rosello LopezG	1	38.0	4.0	1.0	1.0	−5.3	−2.2
Nicole OgunF	1	32.0	19.0	11.0	2.0	−2.5	−0.2
Mirembe Twehamye MontananaG	1	29.0	3.0	4.0	2.0	−2.6	−0.3
Kylani RookstoolG	1	28.0	10.0	4.0	2.0	−2.6	−0.2
Lisa ThompsonG · transfer from Missouri	1	27.0	11.0	4.0	3.0	−0.6	+0.8
Sami ManciniC · transfer from Providence	1	27.0	12.0	13.0	3.0	−2.2	0.0
Macie BrownF	1	11.0	2.0	3.0	0.0	−3.5	−0.3
Bella CosmeG	1	5.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−4.7	−0.2
Paloma Munoz HerrerosG	1	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−4.1	−0.1
Catalina RocoG	1	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−1.9	0.0

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	44.7%rank 137	44.7%rank 132	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	23.8%rank 144	23.8%rank 126	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	33.5%rank 137	33.5%rank 133	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	20.5%rank 127	20.5%rank 139	20.5%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −14.5
Last season's net rating: −15.4
Last season's minutes returning: 36%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +0.7
Change since preseason: 0.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 83.2 (rank 279)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 97.6 (rank 288)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 73.1 (rank 183)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: —

Pac-12 Conference by rating

9 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Gonzaga	1-0	0-0	+18.0	102.6	84.6	42
2	San Diego State	2-0	0-0	+15.4	101.2	85.7	56
3	Colorado State	1-0	0-0	+7.0	92.5	85.5	93
4	Oregon State	0-1	0-0	+4.8	95.8	91.0	102
5	Washington State	0-1	0-0	+0.6	92.4	91.8	135
6	Boise State	1-0	0-0	−1.6	91.0	92.5	155
7	Texas State	1-0	0-0	−7.9	86.6	94.5	210
8	Fresno State	1-0	0-0	−9.1	85.2	94.3	222
9	Utah State	1-0	0-0	−14.5	83.2	97.6	283