Portland Pilots

Women's · West Coast Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: at BYU · Thu 5 Nov, 9 PM ET

Portland14%86%BYU

Projected 61-76 · Game page

Makes the tournament27%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 11.5

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 24-10

Net rating+8.3Rank 87 of 363 · offence 94, defence 75

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 24-10 (18 to 29 wins)
Projected conference record: 13-5
Wins or shares the conference title: 23%
Wins the conference tournament: 20%
Average seed if in the field: 11.5
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field27%
Round of 324%
Sweet 16<1%
Elite Eight<1%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result
Mon 2 Nov	vs Willamettenot Division I	Home	—	—	W 107-29
Thu 5 Nov9 PM ET	at BYUrank 39	Away	14%	61-76	—
Sun 8 Nov4 PM ET	at Montana Staterank 53	Away	19%	62-75	—
Wed 11 Nov8 PM ET	vs Warner Pacificnot Division I	Home	—	—	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 27% · the next 7 days

Thu 5 Nov: at BYUA win: 33% · a loss: 26%+7 pts
Sun 8 Nov: at Montana StateA win: 32% · a loss: 26%+6 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Tiffany BarbosaG	1	17.0	8.0	2.0	1.0	+1.7	+1.2
Dyani AnanievG	1	16.0	8.0	1.0	1.0	+4.2	+1.9
Rhyan MogelG	1	15.0	10.0	2.0	3.0	+1.9	+1.1
Sara ManganG	1	15.0	13.0	0.0	1.0	−0.5	+0.5
Goundo Diakite BayoF	1	14.0	8.0	5.0	0.0	−0.5	+0.4
Maddie AngusG	1	14.0	5.0	4.0	3.0	−0.5	+0.4
Florence DallowG	1	13.0	5.0	1.0	2.0	+3.0	+1.2
Ella ZimmermanF	1	13.0	6.0	3.0	2.0	+1.5	+0.9
Brynn SmithG	1	13.0	11.0	2.0	1.0	+0.5	+0.6
Julia DalanC	1	13.0	7.0	5.0	1.0	+3.7	+1.4
Caitlin MonahanG	1	12.0	2.0	2.0	1.0	+0.6	+0.6
Jada KennedyC	1	12.0	8.0	4.0	1.0	+3.6	+1.3
Lainey SpearF	1	11.0	8.0	2.0	3.0	+2.9	+1.0

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	44.6%rank 140	44.6%rank 133	44.6%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	23.9%rank 150	23.9%rank 128	23.9%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	33.5%rank 140	33.5%rank 136	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	20.4%rank 137	20.4%rank 144	20.4%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +8.3
Last season's net rating: +4.0
Last season's minutes returning: 85%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: 0.0
Change since preseason: 0.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 95.0 (rank 94)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 86.7 (rank 75)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 74.6 (rank 53)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: —

West Coast Conference by rating

10 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Santa Clara	1-0	0-0	+16.5	102.7	86.2	51
2	Portland	1-0	0-0	+8.3	95.0	86.7	87
3	Loyola Marymount	1-0	0-0	+5.5	97.0	91.5	98
4	San Francisco	1-0	0-0	+1.7	93.0	91.3	124
5	Pepperdine	1-0	0-0	+1.2	89.8	88.6	130
6	Pacific	1-0	0-0	−3.2	89.7	92.9	177
7	San Diego	1-0	0-0	−8.4	84.7	93.1	216
8	Saint Mary's	0-1	0-0	−11.4	83.1	94.5	245
9	Denver	1-1	0-0	−12.3	83.6	96.0	260
10	Seattle U	1-0	0-0	−20.2	80.0	100.2	332