American University Eagles
Next: at Georgetown · Thu 5 Nov, 7 PM ETProjected 51-78 · Game page
Makes the tournament<1%From 20,000 simulated seasons
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 8-23
Net rating−19.9Rank 327 of 363 · offence 305, defence 333
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 8-23 (3 to 13 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 4-14
- Wins or shares the conference title
- <1%
- Wins the conference tournament
- <1%
- Average seed if in the field
- —
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field<1%
- Round of 320%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 5 Nov7 PM ET | at Georgetownrank 91 | Away | 2% | 51-78 | Live |
Rooting guide
- Thu 5 Nov: at GeorgetownA win: 1% · a loss: <1%+1 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 44.6%rank 140 | 44.6%rank 133 | 44.6% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin | 23.9%rank 150 | 23.9%rank 128 | 23.9% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin | 33.5%rank 140 | 33.5%rank 136 | 33.5% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin | 20.4%rank 137 | 20.4%rank 144 | 20.4% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −19.9
- Last season's net rating
- −21.6
- Last season's minutes returning
- 63%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −0.8
- Change since preseason
- 0.0
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 80.2 (rank 305)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 100.1 (rank 333)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 72.4 (rank 255)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- —
Patriot League by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Navy | 1-0 | 0-0 | +4.7 | 93.1 | 88.4 | 102 |
| 2 | Army | 1-0 | 0-0 | +4.2 | 93.9 | 89.8 | 105 |
| 3 | Lehigh | 0-1 | 0-0 | +1.9 | 91.9 | 90.1 | 121 |
| 4 | Holy Cross | 2-0 | 0-0 | −3.2 | 84.3 | 87.5 | 178 |
| 5 | Boston University | 0-1 | 0-0 | −11.4 | 84.8 | 96.2 | 244 |
| 6 | Bucknell | 0-1 | 0-0 | −12.4 | 84.7 | 97.1 | 262 |
| 7 | Loyola Maryland | 1-0 | 0-0 | −12.8 | 83.2 | 96.1 | 265 |
| 8 | Colgate | 1-0 | 0-0 | −14.7 | 82.1 | 96.8 | 285 |
| 9 | Lafayette | 0-1 | 0-0 | −17.1 | 83.7 | 100.8 | 303 |
| 10 | American University | 0-0 | 0-0 | −19.9 | 80.2 | 100.1 | 327 |