Charlotte 49ers

Women's · American Conference · 0-1, 0-0 in conference · last L1

Next: at Texas Tech · Thu 5 Nov, 6 PM ET

Charlotte5%95%Texas Tech

Projected 55-79 · Game page

Makes the tournament1%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 13.7

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 12-18

Net rating−5.3Rank 191 of 363 · offence 170, defence 221

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 12-18 (7 to 18 wins)
Projected conference record: 8-10
Wins or shares the conference title: 1%
Wins the conference tournament: 1%
Average seed if in the field: 13.7
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field1%
Round of 32<1%
Sweet 160%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Richmondrank 64	Home	19%	72-85	L 71-83	Right
Thu 5 Nov6 PM ET	at Texas Techrank 48	Away	5%	55-79	Live
Mon 9 Nov7 PM ET	vs Longwoodrank 275	Home	81%	74-61	—

Rooting guide

Chance of the conference title now: 1% · the next 7 days

Thu 5 Nov: at Texas TechA win: <1% · a loss: 1%−1 pts
Mon 9 Nov: vs LongwoodA win: 1% · a loss: 1%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Zoe BestG	1	30.0	20.0	5.0	2.0	−0.6	+0.8
Charish ThompsonF · transfer from Cal Poly	1	27.0	14.0	2.0	0.0	−1.3	+0.4
Da'Brya ClarkG · transfer from Norfolk St	1	23.0	12.0	0.0	5.0	+0.5	+1.1
Mariah SainG	1	23.0	2.0	3.0	2.0	−2.2	0.0
Isis Johnson-MusahF · transfer from California	1	22.0	18.0	5.0	0.0	+0.2	+0.9
Caroline ThielG	1	19.0	5.0	2.0	0.0	−1.5	+0.2
Alana RouserF	1	16.0	0.0	4.0	0.0	−2.1	0.0
Jazlyn HarrisG	1	13.0	0.0	1.0	1.0	−2.0	0.0
Ja'Navia GageF	1	13.0	0.0	3.0	0.0	+0.2	+0.6
Audia YoungG · transfer from Xavier	1	8.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−3.1	−0.1
Taliah CornishG	1	6.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−2.2	0.0

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	45.4%rank 82	48.5%rank 363	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	23.8%rank 243	23.5%rank 242	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	31.6%rank 325	33.2%rank 114	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	19.8%rank 258	21.5%rank 297	20.5%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 0.0 won, 0.2 expected (−0.2)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −15.5 points a game (they shot 50.0%, league 28.5%)
Opponents' free throws: +0.6 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −5.7
Last season's net rating: +0.2
Last season's minutes returning: 34%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −5.0
Change since preseason: +0.5

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 89.4 (rank 170)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 94.7 (rank 221)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 72.7 (rank 235)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: +13.8 (rank 61)

American Conference by rating

13 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Rice	1-0	0-0	+12.5	95.0	82.4	69
2	South Florida	1-0	0-0	+10.5	99.4	89.0	75
3	UTSA	0-0	0-0	+4.2	90.9	86.7	104
4	Tulane	1-0	0-0	+2.7	90.3	87.6	115
5	North Texas	1-1	0-0	+2.3	92.0	89.7	119
6	Temple	0-1	0-0	+1.3	93.5	92.1	129
7	East Carolina	1-0	0-0	−2.3	88.1	90.3	167
8	Tulsa	0-1	0-0	−2.8	88.6	91.4	171
9	Memphis	1-0	0-0	−4.9	87.3	92.2	189
10	Charlotte	0-1	0-0	−5.3	89.4	94.7	191
11	UAB	1-0	0-0	−8.3	87.5	95.8	213
12	Florida Atlantic	0-1	0-0	−8.6	85.0	93.6	217
13	Wichita State	0-1	0-0	−14.0	78.5	92.5	279